MRI-based habitat analysis for pathologic response prediction after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer: a multicenter study.

objectivesTo investigate MRI-based habitat analysis for its value in predicting pathologic response following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in rectal cancer (RC) patients. MATERIALS AND

methods1021 RC patients in three hospitals were divided into the training and test sets (n = 319), the internal validation set (n = 317), and external validation sets 1 (n = 158) and 2 (n = 227). Deep learning was performed to automatically segment the entire lesion on high-resolution MRI. Simple linear iterative clustering was used to divide each tumor into subregions, from which radiomics features were extracted. The optimal number of clusters reflecting the diversity of the tumor ecosystem was determined. Finally, four models were developed: clinical, intratumoral heterogeneity (ITH)-based, radiomics, and fusion models. The performance of these models was evaluated. The impact of nCRT on disease-free survival (DFS) was further analyzed.

resultsThe Delong test revealed the fusion model (AUCs of 0.867, 0.851, 0.852, and 0.818 in the four cohorts, respectively), the radiomics model (0.831, 0.694, 0.753, and 0.705, respectively), and the ITH model (0.790, 0.786, 0.759, and 0.722, respectively) were all superior to the clinical model (0.790, 0.605, 0.735, and 0.704, respectively). However, no significant differences were detected between the fusion and ITH models. Patients stratified using the fusion model showed significant differences in DFS between the good and poor response groups (all p < 0.05 in the four sets).

conclusionThe fusion model combining clinical factors, radiomics features, and ITH features may help predict pathologic response in RC cases receiving nCRT. KEY POINTS: Question Identifying rectal cancer (RC) patients likely to benefit from neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) before treatment is crucial. Findings The fusion model shows the best performance in predicting response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Clinical relevance The fusion model integrates clinical characteristics, radiomics features, and intratumoral heterogeneity (ITH)features, which can be applied for the prediction of response to nCRT in RC patients, offering potential benefits in terms of personalized treatment strategies.