Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40970226›Full record

ArticleBayesian analysis2022

Bayesian Hierarchical Stacking: Some Models Are (Somewhere) Useful.

Yuling Yao, Gregor Pirš, Aki Vehtari, Andrew Gelman

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Bayesian analysis, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Bayesian Geostatistics Using Predictive Stacking.Journal of the American Statistical Association · 2025
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Automating Model Comparison in Factor Graphs.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023
    Article
  10. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Yuling YaoFlatiron Institute, New York, USA.
Gregor PiršFaculty of Computer and Information Science, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Aki VehtariDepartment of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland.
Andrew GelmanDepartment of Statistics and Political Science, Columbia University, New York, USA.

Funding

Software development for Stan to improve survey statistics for non-probability samplesR01AG067149 · NIA · COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK MORNINGSIDE · PI GELMAN, ANDREW · 2020 to 2022
$967k
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG067149
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can further improve the stacked mixture with a hierarchical model. We generalize stacking to Bayesian hierarchical stacking. The model weights are varying as a function of data, partially-pooled, and inferred using Bayesian inference. We further incorporate discrete and continuous inputs, other structured priors, and time series and longitudinal data. To verify the performance gain of the proposed method, we derive theory bounds, and demonstrate on several applied problems.

Indexed as

Bayesian hierarchical modelingconditional predictioncovariate shiftmodel averagingprior constructionstacking

Identifiers

PMID40970226
PMCPMC12442486

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.