Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40962408›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2025

Trends in the shortfall of English NHS general practice doctors: repeat cross sectional study.

Luisa M Pettigrew, Aamena Valiji Bharmal, Soraya Akl, Josephine Exley, Luke N Allen, Irene Petersen, David A Cromwell, Mays

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Enabling non-medically qualified registered clinicians in general practice to request chest X-ray for possible lung cancer.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Article
  3. Counting general practitioners: a comparative repeat cross-sectional analysis of GPs in NHS general practice in England.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Jess's Rule: advocating for continuity, ownership, and generalism in general practice.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Luisa M PettigrewDepartment of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK Luisa.pettigrew@lshtm.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-6427-6696
Aamena Valiji BharmalSchool of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5023-3027
Soraya AklDepartment of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK.ORCID 0009-0007-7497-3971
Josephine ExleyDepartment of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6501-0854
Luke N AllenGlobal Primary Care and Future Health Systems, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2750-3575
Irene PetersenDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0037-7524
David A CromwellDepartment of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6516-8125
MaysDepartment of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9808-8466

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo compare the numbers and characteristics of English general practitioner doctors (GPs) across publicly available data sources, and to examine trends in GP numbers relative to population growth and the specialist medical workforce in England.

designRepeat cross sectional study.

settingThree national data sources, England, 2012-24: General Medical Council (GMC) GP and specialist registers; NHS England GP Performers List; and NHS England's General Practice Workforce and NHS Workforce Statistics datasets.

participantsAll GMC licensed, fully qualified GPs in England.

main outcome measuresDifferences over time in total numbers and GP characteristics. Changes in the difference between GMC and NHS general practice GP numbers and characteristics, and analysis of trends relative to population size and equivalent data on specialist doctors.

resultsAs of 31 December 2024, 58 548 GPs were listed on the GMC GP register, 55 958 on the Performers List, but only 38 626 by headcount and 28 197 by full time equivalent GPs in NHS general practice. Between 2015 and 2024, on average, for every five additional GPs licensed by the GMC, NHS general practice lost one full time equivalent GP each year. As a result, the proportion of GMC licensed GPs not working in NHS general practice increased from 27% (13 492) in 2015 to 34% (19 922) in 2024 by headcount and from 41% (20 210) to 52% (30 351) by full time equivalent GPs. Differences were greatest among female GPs, younger GPs, UK qualified GPs, and GPs in London and the South East of England. In contrast, between 2015 and 2024, for every five additional GMC licensed specialist doctors, the NHS gained 4.3 full time equivalent consultants. Taking population growth into account, the number of NHS patients for each full time equivalent GP in NHS general practice increased by15%, whereas the number of patients for each full time equivalent NHS consultant fell by 18%. By the end of 2024, there were twice as many NHS patients for each full time equivalent NHS general practice GP (2260) than for each full time equivalent NHS consultant (1092).

conclusionThe growing difference between GMC licensed GPs and those working in NHS general practice is in contrast with trends among specialists. This shift is occurring despite rising patient demand and policy commitments to strengthen primary care. Addressing the underlying reasons for workforce attrition in NHS general practice is critical to achieving the government's stated goals of strengthening community based care and shifting the focus of care from treatment to prevention.

Indexed as

General PracticeGeneral PractitionersHealth WorkforceState MedicineAdultCross-Sectional StudiesEnglandFemaleHumansMaleMiddle Aged

Identifiers

PMID40962408
PMCPMC12442227

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.