Deciphering Cell Fate and Clonal Dynamics via Integrative Single-Cell Lineage Modeling.

Through natural or synthetic lineage barcodes, single-cell technologies now enable the joint measurement of molecular states and clonal identities, providing an unprecedented opportunity to study cell fate and dynamics. Yet, most computational methods for inferring cell development and differentiation rely exclusively on transcriptional similarity, overlooking the lineage information encoded by lineage barcodes. This limitation is exemplified by T cells, where subtle transcriptional differences mark divergent fates with distinct biological activity. Single-cell RNA and matched TCR sequencing is now ubiquitous in the analysis of clinical samples, where the TCR sequence provides an endogenous clonal barcode and could reveal clonal T cell responses. We present Clonotrace, a computational framework that jointly models gene expression and clonotype information to infer cell state transitions and fate biases with higher fidelity. While motivated by challenges in analyzing T cell populations, especially in the tumor microenvironment and immunotherapy settings, Clonotrace is broadly applicable to any lineage-barcoded single-cell dataset. Across diverse systems including T cells, hematopoietic differentiation, and cancer therapy resistance models, Clonotrace reveals differentiation hierarchies, distinguishes unipotent from multipotent states, and identifies candidate fate-determining genes driving lineage commitment.