ArticleAIDS (London, England)2025
Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among MSM in Australia.
Article in AIDS (London, England), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- HIV cascade, key indicators, and other epidemiological metrics in Australia (2004-2023): a retrospective analysis.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Clinical presentation and effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy in newly diagnosed people living with HIV before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- COVID-19 as a natural experiment intervention to reduce new HIV infections among Australian MSM.AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveGovernment-imposed physical distancing restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted biobehavioral HIV prevention practices and access to healthcare services. This study aimed to use a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among MSM in Australia, using empirical data.
designA retrospective modeling study.
methodsWe developed a mathematical model to estimate monthly HIV incidence between January 2020 and August 2022. We obtained aggregated monthly data for sexual partners, condom use, HIV testing, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, and migration. Three scenarios were simulated: a COVID-19 scenario; a no COVID-19 scenario where input parameters remained at pre-COVID-19 values; and a no COVID-19 scenario with continued PrEP scale-up.
resultsIn the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic, 1263 (95% percentile interval: 880-1706) infections would have occurred between January 2020 and August 2022 compared to 915 (95% percentile interval: 638-1282) for the COVID-19 scenario (a 27.6% reduction). Reduced sexual partners was the leading factor contributing to the change in HIV infections and diagnoses (-24.9 and -10.6%, respectively). MSM aged at least 50 years had a larger reduction (31.0%) in new HIV infections than their younger counterparts (19.9%).
conclusionA substantial reduction in new HIV infections and diagnoses in Australia occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, largely due to decreased numbers of sexual partners. This reduction underscores the need for sustained public health strategies leveraging reduced transmission rates to continue progress toward eliminating HIV in Australia.
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