Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40939951›Full record

ArticleOphthalmology. Retina2026

Risk Factors for 15-Letter Visual Acuity Loss from Geographic Atrophy Progression over 1 Year in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2.

Emily Vance, Leon von der Emde, Souvick Mukherjee, Jintong Hou, Amitha Domalpally, Emily Y Chew, Usha Chakravarthy, Tiarnán D L Keenan, AREDS2 Research Group

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Ophthalmology. Retina, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Emily VanceDivision of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.
Leon von der EmdeDivision of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Ophthalmology, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Souvick MukherjeeDivision of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.
Jintong HouDivision of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.
Amitha DomalpallyDepartment of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin.
Emily Y ChewDivision of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.
Usha ChakravarthyCentre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom.
Tiarnán D L KeenanDivision of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland. Electronic address: tiarnan.keenan@nih.gov.
AREDS2 Research Group

Funding

The Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2)ZIAEY000485 · NEI · NATIONAL EYE INSTITUTE · PI CHEW, EMILY Y · 2009 to 2015
$990k
Intramural NIH HHS Z99 EY999999Intramural NIH HHS ZIA EY000485
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeA change of ≥15 letters in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) is typically defined as clinically significant by regulatory agencies, but risk factors for rapid 15-letter loss in geographic atrophy (GA) are poorly understood. The purpose was to identify independent risk factors for 15-letter loss within 1 year in eyes with GA.

designPost hoc analysis of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2.

participantsNine hundred sixty-one eyes (743 participants).

methodsAnnual fundus photographs were graded for GA presence/morphology. Best-corrected visual acuity was measured using the ETDRS chart. Multivariable analyses comprised logistic regression for 15-letter loss within 1 year, based on (1) baseline variables (demographic, BCVA, and GA morphology variables, defined at first time point with GA), (2) genetic variables (CFH Y402H and ARMS2), and (3) GA enlargement rate (from first time point with GA).

main outcome measuresFifteen-letter loss in BCVA within 1 year.

resultsDuring 1-year follow-up, BCVA declined by ≥15 letters in 53 eyes (5.5%). In a model with baseline variables, the risk factors were as follows: age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.14; P = 0.0005), closer GA proximity to fovea (aOR, 0.90 per 0.1 mm increase; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97; P = 0.005), current smoking (aOR, 3.85; 95% CI, 1.49-9.97; P = 0.005), and BCVA <20/40 (aOR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.17-3.74; P = 0.013). In a model with baseline variables and genotype, CFH was a risk factor (aOR, 4.63; 95% CI, 1.27-16.9; P = 0.020; 2 vs. 0 risk alleles), whereas ARMS2 was not. In a model with baseline variables and GA enlargement rate, faster enlargement was a risk factor (aOR, 1.12 per 0.1 mm/year increase; 95% CI, 1.07-1.18; P < 0.0001).

conclusionsWe identified multiple independent risk factors for rapid, clinically significant BCVA loss in GA. We also developed clinically relevant models for different scenarios. These can guide the design and interpretation of interventional trials aimed at decreasing vision loss in GA and provide prognostic information in clinical practice. The risk factors for BCVA loss and faster GA enlargement overlap only partially, so that trial inclusion criteria, power calculations, and covariate adjustment should differ according to the choice of a functional versus structural measure as the primary end point. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Indexed as

Geographic AtrophyVisual AcuityAgedAged, 80 and overDisease ProgressionFemaleFluorescein AngiographyFollow-Up StudiesFundus OculiHumansMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsTime Factors15-Letter lossAge-Related Eye Disease Study 2Age-related macular degenerationBest-corrected visual acuityGeographic atrophy

Identifiers

PMID40939951
PMCPMC12661906

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.