Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40924585›Full record

ArticleJournal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD2025

Risk score roulette: A cautionary tale of polygenic risk score reliability.

Diane Xue, Elizabeth E Blue, Alexis C Wood, Jerome I Rotter, Alison E Fohner

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Diane XueDepartment of Genetics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7633-2253
Elizabeth E BlueDivision of Medical Genetics, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0633-0305
Alexis C WoodUSDA/ARS Children's Nutrition Research Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7616-2119
Jerome I RotterInstitute for Translational Genomics and Population Sciences, Department of Pediatrics, The Lundquist Institute for Biomedical Innovation at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Torrance, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7191-1723
Alison E FohnerInstitute for Public Health Genetics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4231-3331

Funding

UCLA Clinical Translational Science InstituteUL1TR001881 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI ARLEEN F. BROWN, ARASH NAEIM · 2016 to 2026
$118.1M
Institute for Clinical and Translational ResearchUL1TR001079 · NCATS · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI FORD, DANIEL ERNEST · 2013 to 2017
$60.1M
Transgenic & Knock-out MouseP30DK063491 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MILES Frome WILKINSON · 2003 to 2026
$40.4M
Subclinical Vascular Contributions to Alzheimer's Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Multisite Study of AD (Renewal)R01AG058969 · NIA · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI Timothy M. Hughes, YONGMEI LIU · 2018 to 2026
$33.4M
Wake Forest Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR001420 · NCATS · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI ARD, JAMY D, FOLEY, KRISTIE L · 2015 to 2023
$32.3M
Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR000040 · NCATS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI GINSBERG, HENRY N · 2012 to 2015
$26.2M
Task Area A Core Study Operations.Task Area A shall encompass annual follow-up of cohort members, clinical endpoints ascertainment, study coordination activities, maintenance of the database and biosp75N92020D00001 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI MCCLELLAND, ROBYN LEAGH · 2020 to 2025
$17.2M
CHARGE Consortium: Omics Discovery for CVD and Aging PhenotypesR01HL105756 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Bruce M Psaty, NICHOLAS L SMITH · 2011 to 2026
$9.5M
Task Area A shall encompass annual follow-up of cohort members, clinical events investigations, study operations, and data analysis and manuscript writing. If implemented, Task A.1 will provide fundin75N92020D00005 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI WATSON, KAROL E · 2020 to 2025
$5.1M
TO EXERCISE OPTION PERIOD ONE (1) FOR TASK AREA A - MESA CORE OPERATIONS, FIELD CENTER.75N92020D00004 · NHLBI · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY · PI SIEGEL, JONATHAN H · 2020 to 2025
$4.5M
Task Area A shall encompass annual follow-up of cohort members, clinical events investigations, study operations, and data analysis and manuscript writing. If implemented, Task A.1 will provide fundin75N92020D00006 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI PANKOW, JAMES S · 2020 to 2025
$4.4M
Task Area A shall encompass annual follow-up of cohort members, clinical events investigations, study operations, and data analysis and manuscript writing. If implemented, Task A.1 will provide fundin75N92020D00003 · NHLBI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI POST, WENDY S · 2020 to 2025
$3.8M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000040NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001079NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001420NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001881NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00001NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00002NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00003NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00004NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00005NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00006NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00007NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500003CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500003INHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095159NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095160NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095161NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095162NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095163NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095164NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095165NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095166NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095167NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095168NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095169NHLBI NIH HHS N02 HL064278NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL105756NIA NIH HHS F99 AG079792NIA NIH HHS K00 AG079792NIA NIH HHS R01 AG058969NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK063491
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Genetic risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease (AD) has high potential impact, yet few studies have assessed the reliability of various polygenic risk score (PRS) methods at the individual level. Here, we evaluated the reliability of AD PRS estimates among 6338 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. We compared four PRS models that have been previously associated with dementia risk. Despite similar population-level performance metrics, inter-model reliability of individual-level risk assessment was low, even among individuals classified in the top and bottom deciles. These findings raise serious concerns about the downstream application of PRS for guiding interventions for AD.

Indexed as

Alzheimer DiseaseGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseMultifactorial InheritanceAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleGenetic Risk ScoreHumansMaleReproducibility of ResultsRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsAlzheimer's diseasepolygenic risk scorereliabilitytranslational

Identifiers

PMID40924585
PMCPMC12541115

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.