ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025
Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers.
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Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed.
- First laboratory-confirmed fatal dengue virus infection and its implications for national arboviral surveillance in Liberia.IJID regions · 2026Article
- Unresolved questions in pediatric dengue: from disease mechanisms to prevention.Current opinion in infectious diseases · 2026Review
- Overall and serotype-specific dengue virus transmission intensity in Mexico, 2016-2023: A modelling study of case-notification data.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Impacts of climate change on dengue.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Article
- Article
- Dengue transmission risk in California under climate and land-use change: a semi-mechanistic modelling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Aedes albopictus and Dengue Transmission Risk in France Over the 21st Century.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Rethinking Dengue Preparedness in the Era of Climate Change, Urbanisation, and Digital Health: A Structured Narrative Review.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Review
- Transmission acceleration outperforms the endemic-channel threshold for dengue outbreak detection.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Association of Climatic Factors with Frequency of Dengue.Infectious disease reports · 2026Article
- Frequent introductions and climate suitability drive increasing dengue risk in Florida.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Climate change and infectious diseases.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- Rural dengue dynamics: the interplay of climate, built environment, and agriculture in Costa Rica.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Epidemiological Characteristics of Dengue Disease in Mexico (2014-2025): A Descriptive Analysis of a Hyperendemic Country.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Waste Generation in Pediatric Orthopaedic Hardware Removal Surgery.Journal of the Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America · 2026Article
- Incidence of Dengue Fever in Pakistan.PloS one · 2026Article
- High-resolution climate-dengue modeling and mid-century projections under SSP5-8.5 in Costa Rica.Science in One Health · 2026Article
- Phylogenetic insights into the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne viruses.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2026Review
- U.S. climate change policy must include vector-borne disease prevention.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Meteorological drivers and short-term prediction of dengue fever in a tropical region of China: evidence from Hainan Province.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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Abstract
Climate change is expected to pose significant threats to public health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite dramatic recent increases in dengue that many anecdotally connect with climate change, the effect of anthropogenic climate change on dengue remains poorly quantified. To assess this link, we assembled local-level data on dengue across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas. We found a nonlinear relationship between temperature and dengue incidence with the largest impact of warming at lower temperatures, peak incidence at 27.8°C, and a decline at higher temperatures. Using this inferred temperature response, we estimate 18% (95% CI: 11 to 27%) of historical dengue incidence on average across our study countries is attributable to anthropogenic warming. Future warming could further increase incidence by 49% (95% CI: 16 to 136%) to 76% (95% CI: 27 to 239%) by midcentury for low or high emissions scenarios, respectively, with cooler regions projected to double in incidence due to warming while other currently hot regions experience little impact or even small declines. Under the highest emissions scenario, we estimate that 262 million people are currently living in places in these 21 countries where dengue incidence is expected to more than double due to climate change by midcentury. These insights highlight the major impacts of anthropogenic warming on dengue burden across most of its endemic range, providing a foundation for public health planning and the development of strategies to mitigate future risks due to climate change.
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