Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40922488›Full record

ArticleScandinavian journal of public health2026

Excess all-cause mortality in Norway in 2024.

Richard Aubrey White, Anders B Nygaard, Arne Søraas, Gunhild A Nyborg

Abstract read
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Article in Scandinavian journal of public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Richard Aubrey WhiteIndependent Researcher, Oslo, Norway.ORCID 0000-0002-6747-1726
Anders B NygaardDepartment of Microbiology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.
Arne SøraasDepartment of Microbiology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.
Gunhild A NyborgDepartment of Microbiology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.ORCID 0000-0003-3549-5480

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsThe Norwegian Institute of Public Health calculated excess mortality for Norway in 2024 using a reference period that included 2023-a year with significant excess mortality-and concluded there was no excess mortality in 2024. This study estimates excess mortality in 2024 using only pre-pandemic years as the reference, providing a basis for identifying excess COVID-19 related mortality.

methodsWe estimated excess mortality in 2024 using a negative binomial model trained on 2010-2019 data. Deaths were modelled by age (0, 1-19, 20-39, 40-64, 65-79, 80-89 and 90+ years) and sex, with population offsets. Expected mortality was projected using both a conservative approach where the prediction for 2023 was carried forward to 2024 and a non-conservative linear extrapolation to 2024.

resultsThe conservative approach estimated 2898 excess deaths (7.0%; 95% prediction interval (PI), 4.9-9.1%) in 2024. Significant excess mortality was observed in age groups 1-19 (45 deaths; 36.6% excess), 20-39 (107 deaths; 17.6% excess), 40-64 (439 deaths; 10.6% excess) and 65-79 (1631 deaths; 13.7% excess). Ages 1-39 and 40-64 accounted for approximately 5% and 15% of total excess mortality, respectively.

conclusions

Indexed as

COVID-19MortalityAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overCause of DeathChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMiddle AgedNorwayall-cause mortalityCOVID-19Excess mortalitylong COVIDpandemic policypost-acute sequelaepost-acute sequelae of COVID-19

Identifiers

PMID40922488
PMCPMC13176487

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.