Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40906026›Full record

ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2025

An instrumental variable analysis of body mass index and risk of long-term sick leave: the HUNT Study, Norway.

Karoline Moe, Eivind Schjelderup Skarpsno, Tom Ivar Lund Nilsen, Silje L Kaspersen, Solveig Osborg Ose, David Carslake, Paul Jarle Mork, Lene Aasdahl

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Obesity, Employment, and Economic Productivity in Europe: A Systematic Literature Review.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2026
    Pooled it
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Karoline MoeDepartment of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Postboks 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway. karoline.moe@ntnu.no.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0007-2758-6688
Eivind Schjelderup SkarpsnoDepartment of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Postboks 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4135-0408
Tom Ivar Lund NilsenDepartment of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Postboks 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8251-3544
Silje L KaspersenDepartment of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Postboks 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8343-0871
Solveig Osborg OseDepartment of Health Research, SINTEF Digital, Trondheim, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5361-7571
David CarslakeMedical Research Council (MRC) Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2916-4546
Paul Jarle MorkDepartment of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Postboks 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3355-2680
Lene AasdahlDepartment of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Postboks 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4276-1345

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A more comprehensive understanding of the causal relationships between body mass index (BMI) and sick leave is needed. We aimed to examine the effect of BMI on the risk of cause-specific and all-cause long-term sick leave using an instrumental variable approach. The study included 21,918 adults participating in the two latest surveys of the population-based HUNT Study (HUNT3, 2006-2008 and HUNT4, 2017-2019) linked with registry data on cause-specific sick leave, including musculoskeletal and mental disorders. We used Cox regression to estimate risk of long-term sick leave per standard deviation (SD) increase in z-score of BMI, applying both conventional analysis of own BMI and instrumental variable analysis based on offspring BMI. In the conventional analyses, hazard ratios per SD increase in z-score of BMI ranged from 1.04 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.99-1.08) for mental health disorders in women to 1.17 (95% CI 1.13-1.22) for musculoskeletal disorders in men. The instrumental variable approach supported that higher BMI increased the risk of long-term sick leave, except for sick leave due to mental health disorders in men. The analyses suggested that offspring BMI as an instrument is not independent of shared confounding. The results from both the conventional and instrumental variable analyses show that higher BMI increases the risk of long-term sick leave, except for sick leave due to mental health disorders in men. The instrumental variable method is likely to remove bias due to reverse causation, but residual bias due to shared confounding factors cannot be ruled out.

Indexed as

Body Mass IndexMental DisordersMusculoskeletal DiseasesSick LeaveAdultFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNorwayProportional Hazards ModelsRisk FactorsBody mass indexInstrumental variableOffspring as instrumentSick leave

Identifiers

PMID40906026
PMCPMC12660429

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.