Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40903473›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Global methane footprints growth and drivers 1990-2023.

Yuli Shan, Kailan Tian, Ruoqi Li, Yuru Guan, Jiamin Ou, Dabo Guan, Klaus Hubacek

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Yuli ShanSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK. y.shan@bham.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5215-8657
Kailan TianState Key Laboratory of Mathematical Sciences, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China. k.tian@amss.ac.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2405-9587
Ruoqi LiSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4464-7773
Yuru GuanSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4426-7017
Jiamin OuDepartment of Sociology, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584 CC, the Netherlands.
Dabo GuanDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Klaus HubacekIntegrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, 9747 AG, the Netherlands. k.hubacek@rug.nl.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2561-6090

Funding

EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020) 101137971National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 71988101National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 72311530105National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 72373141Royal Society IEC\NSFC\223059
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Methane has been identified as the second-largest contributor to climate change, accounting for approximately 30% of global warming. Countries have established targets and are implementing various measures to curb methane emissions. However, our understanding of the trends in methane emissions and their drivers remains limited, particularly from a consumption perspective (i.e. accounting for all emissions along the entire global supply chain). This study investigates the most recent dynamics of methane emissions across 120 sectors from both production and consumption viewpoints in 164 countries. It also discusses the status of decoupling of production- and consumption-based methane emissions from economic growth. Our results indicate that there is no foreseeable slowdown in the momentum of global methane emissions growth. Only a few developed countries have managed to reduce both production- and consumption-based emissions while maintaining economic growth (i.e., strong decoupling) during the observed period (1990-2023). Global trade accounts for approximately 30% of global methane emissions, but major trade patterns are shifting from North-North and North-South to South-South countries, reflecting the increasing participating of developing countries in global supply chains. The study further reveals the changing drivers of global methane emissions from 1998 to 2023 in five-year intervals. It identifies that the reduction in emission coefficient (i.e., emissions per unit of output), driven by advancements in improved energy efficiency and cleaner production technologies, is the main determinant for reducing emissions over the observation period, partly offsetting the increasing effects from growth of final demand. Changes in demand structure have played a considerable role in the increase of emissions since 2008. This study enhances our understanding of the changes and drivers of methane emissions and supports countries in incorporating methane emissions into their climate mitigation strategies.

Identifiers

PMID40903473
PMCPMC12408836

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.