ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2025
The impact of temperature on canine Chagas disease transmission risk: A modeling study.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Molecular modeling design of antitrypanosomal pyrazolone derivatives targeting Chagas disease: QSAR, docking, molecular dynamics and free energy calculations.Journal of molecular modeling · 2026Article
- Delay-driven dynamics in a host-vector model of canine Chagas disease.Scientific reports · 2026Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundCanine Chagas disease is a vector-borne parasitic disease caused by Trypanosoma cruzi. T. cruzi is transmitted by triatomine bugs (a.k.a. kissing bugs), an ectothermic host species. Understanding how temperature induces changes in vector traits such as fecundity, egg hatching, molting, and activity frequency is essential for developing predictive models for Chagas disease transmission.
methodsA mechanistic model based on a Ross-MacDonald framework was developed to capture the temperature-dependent dynamics of T. cruzi transmission. Using empirical data on the impact of temperature on triatomine bugs' life traits, temperature-sensitive parameters were estimated using Bayesian inference approach. These parameters were used to compute a thermal suitability metric, S(T), as an indicator of transmission risk.
resultsThe model suggests that S(T) peaks at 21.8°C (95% CrI: 17.9-22.0°C) and declines to zero below 16.9°C (95% CrI: 15.3-18.2°C) and above 37.7°C (95% CrI: 36.7-38.6°C). Sensitivity analysis shows that triatomine fecundity, egg hatching, and molting rates exert minimal influence on the thermal optimum, while assuming that triatomine activity frequency is constant across temperature keeps S(T) constant between 16.9°C and 37.7°C. This indicates that the effect of temperature on the activity frequency of triatomine is a crucial factor affecting the thermal optimum. Spatial analysis of T. cruzi transmission risk across Texas indicates that the highest transmission risk is concentrated in South Texas and the Gulf Coast regions. Moreover, there is high seasonal variation in the transmission risk, with South Texas and the Gulf Coast experiencing higher risk during Spring, whereas elsewhere the risk is highest during Summer.
conclusionThese findings underscore the critical role of temperature in shaping T. cruzi transmission dynamics. The study highlights the urgent need for more species-specific empirical research on how temperature affects vector life history traits. Such insights are essential to refine predictive models of Chagas disease and to develop more effective, targeted vector control strategies. These efforts will be crucial in advancing current initiatives aimed at mitigating the veterinary and public health impacts of canine Chagas disease.
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