ArticleScience advances2025
Climate change increases the interannual variance of summer crop yields globally through changes in temperature and water supply.
Article in Science advances, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Year-independent prediction of rice grain protein content using machine learning with agronomy-aligned multi-year field data.Frontiers in plant science · 2026Article
- Divergent responses of leaf traits to latitudinal gradients in natural and planted forests.Forestry research · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Year-to-year variance of agricultural productivity is an important determinant of food security. Previous global analyses described increased yield volatility from warming, but it has become increasingly clear that changes in water availability are also a key determinant of yields. Here, we provide the first global quantification of climate change impacts on maize, soybean, and sorghum yield variance due to changes in temperature and soil moisture. Pairing an empirical crop model with CMIP6 simulations indicates that changes in temperature and soil moisture increase interannual weather-induced yield variance by [Formula: see text] across crops. This increase is driven roughly equally by previously quantified increased temperature stress variance, as well as by increased covariance between temperature and soil moisture stresses. Results using a simple land surface model are consistent with those using CMIP6 simulations in indicating that this increased covariance is driven by warmer air more quickly drying soils and by dry soils promoting greater warming.
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Registered trials
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