ArticleBMJ open2025
Global burden of brain and central nervous system cancer among people aged 20-64 years, 1992-2021 and projections to 2050: a population-based study.
Article in BMJ open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Integrated CT-PET radiogenomics and graph-based multi-task learning for preoperative prediction of key glioma molecular markers.Neuroradiology · 2026Article
- Glioblastoma treatment patterns and outcomes over 18 years in an Irish cancer centre.Irish journal of medical science · 2026Article
- Leveraging single-cell and spatial omics for brain tumour insights to improve therapeutic strategies.Molecular brain · 2026Review
- Illness Perception and Psychosocial Adjustment in Brain Tumor Patients and Their Family Caregivers: An Actor-Partner Interdependence Model Analysis.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
objectivesTo estimate the burden, trends, and inequalities of brain and central nervous system cancer (CNS cancer) among adults at global, regional and national level from 1992 to 2021.
designPopulation-based study. POPULATION: Adults aged 20-64 years from 21 regions and 204 countries and territories (Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors Study 2021) from 1992 to 2021.
main outcome measuresOur primary outcomes comprised age-standardised prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for CNS cancers. The analytical framework incorporated temporal trend analysis through annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) metrics, complemented by Bayesian age-period-cohort modelling to assess demographic influences. We employed predictive modelling with decomposition techniques to evaluate contributions from age structure shifts, population dynamics and risk factor modifications, while spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression enabled robust smoothing and trend estimation across continuous time-space dimensions. The study specifically applied frontier analysis methodologies to examine epidemiological patterns of prevalence, incidence, mortality and DALYs within the 20-64 years adult population.
resultsFrom 1992 to 2021, the global age-standardised prevalence (AAPC 1.04 (95% CI 0.91 to 1.18); p<0.001) and incidence (AAPC 0.23 (95% CI 0.14 to 0.31); p<0.001) of CNS cancer among adults aged 20-64 years increased, while age-standardised DALYs (AAPC -0.28 (95% CI -0.34 to -0.22); p<0.001) and mortality (AAPC -0.27 (95% CI -0.34 to -0.2); p<0.001) decreased. The most significant increase in prevalence (AAPC 1.67 (95% CI 1.47 to 1.87); p<0.001) and incidence (AAPC 0.7 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.79); p<0.001) was observed among those aged 20-24 years. The most significant decrease in DALYs (AAPC -0.45 (95% CI -0.55 to -0.35); p<0.001) and mortality (AAPC -0.46 (95% CI -0.56 to -0.36); p<0.001) was observed among those aged 40-44 years. The rate of increase in prevalence and incidence was lower in high sociodemographic index (SDI) (prevalence: AAPC 0.95 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.11); p<0.001), (incidence: AAPC 0.95 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.11); p<0.001) countries compared with low-SDI countries (prevalence: AAPC 0.5 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.57); p<0.001), (incidence: AAPC 0.12 (95% CI -0.07 to 0.31); p<0.001). DALYs and mortality began to decline in high-SDI countries (DALYs: AAPC -0.52 (95% CI -0.73 to -0.31); p<0.001), (mortality: AAPC -0.5 (95% CI -0.7 to -0.3); p<0.001), but these indicators continue to rise in low-SDI nations (DALYs: AAPC 0.45 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.51); p<0.001), (mortality: AAPC 0.38 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.46); p<0.001). Our predictive analysis found that from 2021 to 2050, the number of CNS cancer cases among people aged 20-64 years will be on the rise globally, which is expected to increase from 186 891 to 245 942, an increase of 31.6%.From 1992 to 2021, the global age-standardised prevalence and incidence of CNS cancer among adults aged 20-64 years increased, while age-standardised DALYs and mortality decreased. The most significant increase in prevalence and incidence was observed among those aged 20-24 years. The most significant decrease in DALYs and mortality was observed among those aged 40-44 years. The rate of increase in prevalence and incidence was lower in high SDI countries compared with low-SDI countries. DALYs and mortality began to decline in high-SDI countries, but these indicators continue to rise in low-SDI nations. Our predictive analysis found that from 2021 to 2050, the number of CNS cancer cases among people aged 20-64 years will be on the rise globally, which is expected to increase from 186 891 to 245 942, an increase of 31.6%.
conclusionsSignificant inequalities exist in age-standardised prevalence, incidence, DALYs and mortality of CNS cancer among countries with varying sociodemographic indices. These disparities highlight the urgent need for targeted clinical guidelines and equitable distribution of global health resources.
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