Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40897323›Full record

ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2025

The paradoxical impact of drought on West Nile virus risk: insights from long-term ecological data.

Samantha Sambado, Terrell J Sipin, Zoe Rennie, Ashley Larsen, James Cunningham, Amy Quandt, Dan Sousa, Andrew J MacDonald

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Samantha SambadoUniversity of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2594-3641
Terrell J SipinUniversity of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
Zoe RennieUniversity of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
Ashley LarsenUniversity of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
James CunninghamUniversity of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
Amy QuandtSan Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA.
Dan SousaSan Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA.
Andrew J MacDonaldUniversity of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.

Funding

National Science Foundation and Fogarty International CenterNCEZID CDC HHS U01 CK000516NCEZID CDC HHS U01 CK000649the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Rapid Response to Extreme Weather Events Across Food and Agricultural Systems programTraining Grant Program of the Pacific Southwest Regional Center of Excellence for Vector-Borne Diseases funded by the U.S. CDCUSDA NIFA Sustainable Agroecosystems program
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases are deeply embedded within ecological communities, with environmental changes-particularly climate change-shaping their dynamics. Increasingly intense droughts across the globe have profound implications for the transmission of these diseases, as drought conditions can alter mosquito breeding habitats, host-seeking behaviours and mosquito-host contact rates. To quantify the effect of drought on disease transmission, we use West Nile virus as a model system and leverage a robust mosquito and virus dataset consisting of over 500 000 trap nights collected from 2010 to 2023, spanning a historic drought period followed by atmospheric rivers. We pair this surveillance dataset with a novel modelling approach that incorporates monthly changes in bird host community competence, along with drought conditions, to estimate the effect of drought severity on West Nile virus risk using panel regression models. Our results show that while drought decreases mosquito abundances, it paradoxically increases West Nile virus infection rates. This counterintuitive pattern probably stems from reduced water availability, which concentrates mosquitoes and pathogen-amplifying bird hosts around limited water sources, thereby increasing disease transmission risk. However, the magnitude of the effect depends critically on mosquito species, suggesting species-specific behavioural traits are key to understanding the effect of drought on mosquito-borne disease risk across real landscapes.

Indexed as

CulicidaeDroughtsMosquito VectorsWest Nile FeverWest Nile virusAnimalsBirdsClimate Changebird host communityclimate variabilityCulex spp.panel regression modelsrural–urban landscapesvector-borne disease

Identifiers

PMID40897323
PMCPMC12404801

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.