Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40892925›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025

Unprecedented suppression of Panama's Pacific upwelling in 2025.

Aaron O'Dea, Andrew J Sellers, Carmen Pérez-Medina, Javier Pardo Díaz, Alexandra Guzmán Bloise, Christopher Pöhlker, Michał T Chiliński, Hedy M Aardema, Jonathan D Cybulski, Lena Heins and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Unprecedented suppression of Panama's Pacific upwelling in 2025.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Aaron O'DeaSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0001-5495-4764
Andrew J SellersSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0001-5799-4040
Carmen Pérez-MedinaSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0009-0004-4192-3423
Javier Pardo DíazSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0002-3940-6038
Alexandra Guzmán BloiseSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0009-0007-5580-6385
Christopher PöhlkerMultiphase Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz 55128, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-6958-425X
Michał T ChilińskiMultiphase Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz 55128, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-3496-9966
Hedy M AardemaClimate Geochemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz 55128, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-3202-1194
Jonathan D CybulskiSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0002-8415-6162
Lena HeinsClimate Geochemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz 55128, Germany.ORCID 0009-0008-2330-3529
Steven R PatonSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa 0843, Republic of Panamá.ORCID 0000-0003-2035-6699
Hans A SlagterClimate Geochemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz 55128, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4243-9869
Ralf SchiebelClimate Geochemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz 55128, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-6252-7647
Gerald H HaugClimate Geochemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz 55128, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-7534-4420

Funding

National Science Foundation (NSF) EAR-2347773SENACYT | Sistema Nacional de Investigación, Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SNI, SENACYT) NA
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Gulf of Panama's (GOP) seasonal upwelling system has consistently delivered cool, nutrient-rich waters via northerly trade winds every January-April for at least 40 y. Here, we document the failure of this normally highly predictable phenomenon in 2025. Data suggest that the cause was a reduction in Panama wind-jet frequency, duration, and strength, possibly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position during the 2024-2025 La Niña, though the mechanisms remain unclear. Nevertheless, the consequences are likely significant, including decreases in fisheries productivity and exacerbated thermal stress on corals that typically benefit from upwelling's cooling. This event underscores how climate disruption can threaten wind-driven tropical upwelling systems, which remain poorly monitored and studied despite their importance to ecology and coastal economies.

Indexed as

coastal upwellingENSOGulf of Panamamarina productivityTropical Eastern Pacific

Identifiers

PMID40892925
PMCPMC12435233

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.