Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40884774›Full record

Trial reportCirculation2025

Biomarker-Based ABC-AF Risk Scores for Personalized Treatment to Reduce Stroke or Death in Atrial Fibrillation: A Registry-Based, Multicenter, Randomized, Controlled Study.

Jonas Oldgren, Ziad Hijazi, Håkan Arheden, Anna Björkenheim, Viveka Frykman, Magnus Janzon, Annica Ravn-Fischer, Henrik Renlund, Anders Själander, Torbjörn Åkerfeldt and 1 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract readMulticenter StudyRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Circulation, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT03753490 (ABC-Risk Scores for Reduction of Stroke and Mortality in Atrial Fibrillation - a Multicenter, Registry-based, Randomized Controlled Parallel-group Open-label Study), which is not on this map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT03753490 naactive not recruitingnot on this map

ABC-Risk Scores for Reduction of Stroke and Mortality in Atrial Fibrillation - a Multicenter, Registry-based, Randomized Controlled Parallel-group Open-label Study

TypeinterventionalSponsorUppsala UniversityRan2018 to 2028Enrolled3,933ConditionsAtrial FibrillationArmsABC score guided therapy, Standard care
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. NovelBiomedicines · 2026
    Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Jonas OldgrenUppsala Clinical Research Center (J.O., H.R., L.W.), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-9969-3921
Ziad HijaziDepartment of Medical Sciences (J.O., Z.H., L.W., T.Å.), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-7420-743X
Håkan ArhedenDepartment of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden (H.A.).ORCID 0000-0002-6124-3159
Anna BjörkenheimDepartment of Cardiology, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden (A.B.).ORCID 0000-0002-4288-3310
Viveka FrykmanDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Danderyd University Hospital, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden (V.F.).ORCID 0000-0002-0376-8133
Magnus JanzonDepartments of Cardiology and Health, Medicine, and Caring Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden (M.J.).ORCID 0000-0002-9375-5087
Annica Ravn-FischerDepartment of Cardiology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, and Institute of Medicine, Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden (A.R.-F.).ORCID 0000-0003-2585-1592
Henrik RenlundUppsala Clinical Research Center (J.O., H.R., L.W.), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-2141-6086
Anders SjälanderDepartment of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden (A.S.).ORCID 0000-0001-9422-1186
Torbjörn ÅkerfeldtDepartment of Medical Sciences (J.O., Z.H., L.W., T.Å.), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0003-0214-596X
Lars WallentinUppsala Clinical Research Center (J.O., H.R., L.W.), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0003-0378-6531

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe clinical use of risk scores to guide treatment decisions and improve clinical outcomes has rarely been prospectively evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate whether a biomarker-based ABC-AF risk score-guided multidimensional treatment strategy improves long-term outcomes in patients with AF.

methodsThe multicenter, registry-based, randomized, controlled, open-label study enrolled adults with AF. In the ABC-AF strategy arm, the investigator was informed of each individual's ABC-AF score risks for stroke and bleeding, which were used as decision support to tailor treatment recommendations, including preference for type of direct oral anticoagulant treatment. In the standard of care arm, patient management was at the discretion of the investigator. Primary outcome was a composite of stroke or death. Secondary outcomes included stroke, death, major bleeding events, and their composite outcome.

resultsThe intention-to-treat population comprised 3933 patients with a median age of 73.7 years; 33.6% were women, 51.3% had paroxysmal AF, 11.2% had a previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, and 85.7% had oral anticoagulant treatment. After randomization, 97.8% in the ABC-AF strategy arm and 92.6% in the standard of care arm received OACs (

conclusionsThe individually tailored multidimensional treatment strategy, based on ABC-AF risk scores, did not improve clinical outcomes compared with usual guideline-based care in patients with AF. The results emphasize the need for prospective testing of the use of risk stratification and precision medicine tools in different clinical settings before implementation in routine care. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03753490.

Indexed as

AnticoagulantsAtrial FibrillationPrecision MedicineStrokeAgedAged, 80 and overBiomarkersFemaleHemorrhageHumansMaleMiddle AgedRegistriesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsTreatment OutcomeAnticoagulantsBiomarkersatrial fibrillationbiomarkersintracranial hemorrhagesrisk factorsstroke

Identifiers

PMID40884774
PMCPMC12643572

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.