Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40884523›Full record

ArticleJACC. Asia2025

Predicting the Surge in Valve-in-Valve Volume: A Comparative Study of Japan and the United States.

Yohei Ohno, Philippe Généreux, Roy D Dar, Ulrich Gerckens, Danny Dvir, Didier Tchétché, Norihiko Kamioka, Shinichi Shirai, Norio Tada, Masanori Yamamoto and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JACC. Asia, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Yohei OhnoDepartment of Cardiology, Tokai University School of Medicine, Isehara, Japan. Electronic address: yohno@tokai.ac.jp.
Philippe GénéreuxGagnon Cardiovascular Institute, Morristown Medical Center, Morristown, New Jersey, USA.
Roy D DarPi-Cardia, Rehovot, Israel.
Ulrich GerckensCardiology Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
Danny DvirDepartment of Cardiology, Shaare Zedek Medical Center and Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
Didier TchétchéGroupe CardioVasculaire Interventionnel, Clinique Pasteur, Toulouse, France.
Norihiko KamiokaDepartment of Cardiology, Tokai University School of Medicine, Isehara, Japan.
Shinichi ShiraiDepartment of Cardiology, Kokura Memorial Hospital, Kitakyushu, Japan.
Norio TadaDepartment of Cardiology, Sendai Kosei Hospital, Sendai, Japan.
Masanori YamamotoDepartment of Cardiology, Toyohashi Heart Center, Toyohashi, Japan; Department of Cardiology, Nagoya Heart Center, Nagoya, Japan; Department of Cardiology, Gifu Heart Center, Gifu, Japan.
Kentaro HayashidaDepartment of Cardiology, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Yusuke WatanabeDepartment of Cardiology, Teikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUnderstanding trends in transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) utilization is essential for predicting valve-in-valve (ViV) TAVR usage, a viable option for failed bioprosthetic valves that presents a promising avenue for lifetime management of aortic stenosis.

objectivesThis study aimed to predict and compare the future annual ViV volume in the United States and Japan based on past and current TAVR/SAVR utilization under some underlying assumptions.

methodsWe developed a MATLAB-based Monte Carlo model engine to simulate the lifespan of bioprosthetic TAVR and SAVR valves. The valves are simulated for each individual TAVR/SAVR procedure from 1998 to 2035, accounting for over 4.4 million AVRs in the United States and 800,000 AVRs in Japan. The model allocates ages of the index procedure, valve durability, patient survival postprocedure, and accounts for redo open-heart procedures (in the U.S. model).

resultsThe model outputs for total annual ViV volume for the United States and Japan show strong alignment with the 2023 TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) and 2024 J-TVT (Japanese Transcatheter Valve Therapy) registry data, respectively. Both the U.S. and Japan ViV trends are made up of 2 parts-TAVR-in-SAVR dominates initially, after which TAVR-in-TAVR rises and dominates, with TAVR-in-SAVR flattening out after 2028. Total ViV is projected to reach approximately 42,000 (95% CI: 41,888-42,112) U.S. procedures (∼15% of U.S. TAVR) and 4,972 (95% CI: 4,935-5,009) Japanese procedures (∼8% of Japanese TAVR) in 2035.

conclusionsFuture ViV procedures are predicted to surge in the United States and Japan, with TAVR-in-TAVR dominating both markets in 2035.

Indexed as

surgical aortic valve replacementtranscatheter aortic valve replacementvalve durabilityvalve-in-valve

Identifiers

PMID40884523
PMCPMC12790052

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.