ArticleActa oncologica (Stockholm, Sweden)2025
External validation of deep learning-derived 18F-FDG PET/CT delta biomarkers for loco-regional control in head and neck cancer.
Article in Acta oncologica (Stockholm, Sweden), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
background and purposeDelta biomarkers that reflect changes in tumour burden over time can support personalised follow-up in head and neck cancer. However, their clinical use can be limited by the need for manual image segmentation. This study externally evaluates a deep learning model for automatic determination of volume change from serial 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) scans to stratify patients by loco-regional outcome. Patient/material and methods: An externally developed deep learning algorithm for tumour segmentation was applied to pre- and post-radiotherapy (RT, with or without concomitant chemoradiotherapy) PET/CT scans of 50 consecutive head and neck cancer patients from The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, UK. The model, originally trained on pre-treatment scans from a different institution, was deployed to derive tumour volumes at both time points. The AI-derived change in tumour volume (ΔPET-Gross tumour volume (GTV)) was calculated for each patient. Kaplan-Meier analysis assessed loco-regional control based on ΔPET-GTV, dichotomised at the cohort median. In a separate secondary analysis confined to the pre‑treatment scans, a radiation oncologist qualitatively evaluated the AI‑generated PET‑GTV contours.
resultsPatients with higher ΔPET-GTV (i.e. greater tumour shrinkage) had significantly improved loco-regional control (log-rank p = 0.02). At 2 years, control was 94.1% (95% CI: 83.6-100%) vs. 53.6% (95% CI: 32.2-89.1%). Only one of nine failures occurred in the high ΔPET-GTV group. Clinician review found AI volumes acceptable for planning in 78% of cases. In two cases, the algorithm identified oropharyngeal primaries on pre-treatment PET-CT before clinical identification.
interpretationDeep learning-derived ΔPET-GTV may support clinically meaningful assessment of post-treatment disease status and risk stratification, offering a scalable alternative to manual segmentation in PET/CT follow-up.
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