ArticleThe Lancet. Respiratory medicine2025
Projecting the 30-year burden of obstructive sleep apnoea in the USA: a prospective modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Respiratory medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Performance of AI-Based Screening Tools for Obstructive Sleep Apnea Across Apnea-Hypopnea Index Thresholds: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Pooled it
- Efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors, GLP-1 receptor agonists, and aerobic exercise for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea in overweight or obese patients: a network meta-analysis.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Pooled it
- Daridorexant in severe obstructive sleep apnea: effects on sleep-disordered breathing and sleep.Sleep · 2026Trial
- Factors influencing the prediction of obstructive sleep apnea: an observational study from a developing country.Future science OA · 2026Article
- A Randomized Four-Period Cross-Over Phase I Study to Assess Bioavailability, Bioequivalence, and Tolerability of IHL-42X Compared with the Reference Drugs in Healthy Volunteers.Clinical drug investigation · 2026Article
- Smartwatch-based detection of moderate-to-severe and high-risk obstructive sleep apnea.Journal of clinical sleep medicine : JCSM : official publication of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine · 2026Observational
- A population-based study of obstructive sleep apnea: using probabilistic case ascertainment through health administrative databases.International journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Respiratory Effort-Driven Mandibular Opening as a Mechanism of Air Leak During CPAP Therapy.Annals of the American Thoracic Society · 2026Article
- Sleep and obesity-known interactions and open questions.Journal of clinical sleep medicine : JCSM : official publication of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine · 2026Review
- Review
- Benchmarking inflammation-nutrition and TyG-related indices for 5-year mortality risk in adults with questionnaire-defined obstructive sleep apnea: a survey-weighted NHANES derivation cohort with multicenter external validation.Journal of translational medicine · 2026Article
- Zero burden multi night monitoring with AI enabled technology reduces obstructive sleep apnea misdiagnosis.NPJ digital medicine · 2026Article
- Analytical amplitude/phase markers for neurological sleep apnea events.Neurobiology of sleep and circadian rhythms · 2026Article
- Mechanisms underlying end-organ injury in sleep apnoea.The European respiratory journal · 2026Review
- Screening for obstructive sleep apnea in an Afro-Caribbean Population: Diagnostic performance of common questionnaires compared with respiratory polygraphy - The MASOS Study A prospective, cross-sectional, descriptive, and analytical study.Sleep & breathing = Schlaf & Atmung · 2026Article
- Multi night digital assessment of sleep disordered breathing is associated with accelerated vascular aging.NPJ digital medicine · 2026Article
- Obstructive Sleep Apnea: The Expanding Role of Dental Sleep Medicine-A Systematic Review of Mandibular Advancement Devices, Treatment Efficacy, and Occlusal Complications.Dentistry journal · 2026Review
- Multimodal physiological signal learning for clinical sleep respiratory event recognition.Frontiers in neurology · 2026Article
- Development and internal validation of a LASSO-based nomogram for predicting SAS-defined anxiety symptoms in obstructive sleep apnea.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Article
- Causal Association Between Gut Microbiota and Sleep Apnoea Identified by Bayesian Weighted Mendelian Randomisation.Journal of cellular and molecular medicine · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundObstructive sleep apnoea is a common disorder that is associated with major public health and economic burden across the USA. Previous studies have assessed the prevalence of the condition. In the present study, we aimed to estimate the burden of obstructive sleep apnoea across the USA from 2020 to 2050, to guide public health policies and management pathways.
methodsIn this prospective modelling study, historical data on obstructive sleep apnoea prevalence in the USA were extracted from a previously published longitudinal cohort study. US population characteristics (age and sex) were obtained from relevant and validated population data sources, and data on BMI were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Wisconsin Sleep Cohort. To project the obstructive sleep apnoea burden (cases and prevalence) into 2050, we developed an open cohort dynamic population simulation model.
findingsOn the basis of projected changes in US age, sex, and BMI population distributions, the model predicts a significant rise in obstructive sleep apnoea over the next three decades. By 2050, the prevalence of obstructive sleep apnoea (apnoea-hypopnoea index ≥5/h) is expected to show a relative increase of 34·7%, from 34·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 34·0-34·4) to 46·2% (46·0-46·4), resulting in 76·6 million cases. We estimate that females will see a larger relative increase than males, with a 65·4% relative increase in prevalence, from 22·8% (22·5-23·0) to 37·7% (37·4-38·0) reaching a total of 30·4 million cases. Males are projected to show a more moderate relative increase of 19·3%, from 45·6% (45·4-46·0) to 54·4% (54·2-54·7), reaching 45·9 million cases.
interpretationProjections indicate that obstructive sleep apnoea will affect 76·6 million adults aged 30-69 years across the USA in 2050, with a disproportionate growth among females compared with males. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted public health strategies and revised access to diagnosis and follow-up pathways to address the growing prevalence of obstructive sleep apnoea, particularly among females.
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