ArticleNature medicine2025
Influenza vaccine strain selection with an AI-based evolutionary and antigenicity model.
Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus in summer of 2026 shows antigenic advance of H3N2 subclade K region D mutants and H1N1 D.3.1.1 Sa mutants.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- mRNA-1010 and the Future of Seasonal Influenza Prevention: Towards Next-Generation Respiratory Vaccination.Vaccines · 2026Article
- From sites to structure to serology: a roadmap for structure-aware molecular evolution of antigenically evolving viruses.Journal of virology · 2026Review
- Article
- Epistasis facilitates the long-term antigenic evolution of the influenza B virus hemagglutinin.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Limited evidence of AI superiority in seasonal influenza vaccine strain selection.Nature medicine · 2026Article
- Strain Matching of Seasonal Influenza Vaccines and Emergence of Neuraminidase Inhibitor Resistance in China from 2015 to 2025.Vaccines · 2026Article
- Machine learning for evolutionary genetics and molecular evolution.Trends in genetics : TIG · 2026Review
- Influenza vaccine-specific CD4NPJ vaccines · 2026Article
- Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus as of early 2026 to inform vaccine-strain selection.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- RACK1 in host immune response to infections: molecular mechanisms and therapeutic potentials.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Review
- Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus as of early 2026 to inform vaccine-strain selection.Virus evolution · 2026Article
- Artificial intelligence for coordinating vaccine design, antiviral discovery, and real-world monitoring in the era of emerging and endemic viral threats.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2026Review
- AI-guided epitope engineering of a SARS-CoV-2 spike antigen for broad sarbecovirus neutralization.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- Next-generation viral detection through AI-enhanced nanotechnology: advances, challenges, and future directions.Frontiers in molecular biosciences · 2026Article
- Genomic similarity to quantitatively evaluate the reassortment potential of H7N9 with other subtypes of avian influenza viruses.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Article
- Risk Groups for Vaccine-Preventable Respiratory Infections in Children and Adults: An Overview of the Australian Environment.Vaccines · 2025Review
- Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus to inform vaccine-strain selection in September 2025.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus to inform vaccine-strain selection in September 2025.Virus evolution · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Current vaccines provide limited protection against rapidly evolving viruses. For example, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates show that the overall influenza vaccine effectiveness against outpatient illness in the United States averaged below 40% between 2012 and 2021. Moreover, the clinical outcomes of a vaccine can be assessed only retrospectively. Here we propose an in silico method named VaxSeer that predicts the antigenic match of vaccine candidates with circulating viruses, in the context of the viruses' relative dominance in the future influenza season. Based on 10 years of retrospective evaluation using sequencing and antigenicity data, our approach consistently selects strains with better empirical antigenic matches to circulating viruses than annual recommendations. Finally, our predicted estimate of antigenic match exhibits a strong correlation with influenza vaccine effectiveness and reduction in disease burden, highlighting the promise of this framework to drive the vaccine selection process.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.