Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40875860›Full record

ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2025

Machine learning-based penetrance of genetic variants.

Iain S Forrest, Ha My T Vy, Ghislain Rocheleau, Daniel M Jordan, Ben O Petrazzini, Girish N Nadkarni, Judy H Cho, Mythily Ganapathi, Kuan-Lin Huang, Wendy K Chung and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Genetic influences on haematopoiesis.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2026
    Review
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Review
  13. Review
  14. Genetic analysis of neurodegenerative diseases.The Journal of clinical investigation · 2026
    Review
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. What Should a Clinical Cardiologist Know About Cardiogenetics?Journal of the American Heart Association · 2025
    Review
  19. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Iain S ForrestThe Charles Bronfman Institute for Personalized Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5642-422X
Ha My T VyThe Charles Bronfman Institute for Personalized Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5117-3740
Ghislain RocheleauThe Charles Bronfman Institute for Personalized Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9989-7553
Daniel M JordanThe Charles Bronfman Institute for Personalized Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5318-8225
Ben O PetrazziniThe Charles Bronfman Institute for Personalized Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9789-9371
Girish N NadkarniThe Charles Bronfman Institute for Personalized Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6319-4314
Judy H ChoDepartment of Pathology, Molecular and Cell-based Therapy, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7959-0466
Mythily GanapathiDepartment of Pathology and Cell Biology, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2834-0843
Kuan-Lin HuangDepartment of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5537-5817
Wendy K ChungBoston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3438-5685
Ron DoThe Charles Bronfman Institute for Personalized Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3144-3627

Funding

MOUNT SINAI MEDICAL SCIENTIST TRAINING PROGRAMT32GM007280 · NIGMS · MOUNT SINAI SCHOOL OF MEDICINE OF NYU · PI BARON, MARGARET H · 1985 to 2021
$22.8M
Precision IBD via genetics and genomics: integrating International and multi-omic datasets, expanding studies in diverse populations, and defining mechanisms of unmet clinical needs in IBDU24DK062429 · NIDDK · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI Ling-shiang Chuang, Ron Do · 2017 to 2026
$13.9M
Towards an integrated map of causal connections for common, complex diseasesR35GM124836 · NIGMS · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI Ron Do · 2017 to 2026
$3.9M
Integrative Approaches for Identifying Causal Gene-Cell Type Pairs of Complex DiseaseR35GM138113 · NIGMS · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI Kuan-lin Huang · 2020 to 2026
$3.0M
Development of recommendations and policies for genetic variant reclassificationR01HG010365 · NHGRI · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI APPELBAUM, PAUL STUART, CHUNG, WENDY K · 2018 to 2021
$2.9M
NHGRI NIH HHS R01 HG010365NIDDK NIH HHS U24 DK062429NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM124836NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM138113NIGMS NIH HHS T32 GM007280
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Accurate variant penetrance estimation is crucial for precision medicine. We constructed machine learning (ML) models for 10 diseases using 1,347,298 participants with electronic health records, then applied them to an independent cohort with linked exome data. Resulting probabilities were used to evaluate ML penetrance of 1648 rare variants in 31 autosomal dominant disease-predisposition genes. ML penetrance was variable across variant classes, but highest for pathogenic and loss-of-function variants, and was associated with clinical outcomes and functional data. Compared with conventional case-versus-control approaches, ML penetrance provided refined quantitative estimates and aided the interpretation of variants of uncertain significance and loss-of-function variants by delineating clinical trajectories over time. By leveraging ML and deep phenotyping, we present a scalable approach to accurately quantify disease risk of variants.

Indexed as

Genetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenetic VariationMachine LearningPenetranceElectronic Health RecordsExomeHumansLoss of Function MutationPrecision Medicine

Identifiers

PMID40875860
PMCPMC12771675

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.