ArticleApplied health economics and health policy2025
Structured Expert Elicitation to Inform Long-Term Survival Extrapolations in Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma.
Article in Applied health economics and health policy, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Applications of Structural Expert Elicitations for Economic Evaluations: A Systematic Review Update.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Pooled it
- Structured Expert Elicitation of Long-Term Survival in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: A Case Study Applying Guidance from NICE Technical Support Document 26.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn the absence of long-term data, structured expert elicitation gathers expert judgments and associated uncertainties to assess the clinical plausibility of long-term extrapolations.
objectiveThe objective of this study was to obtain expert estimates of expected long-term outcomes for advanced renal cell carcinoma treatments to inform cost-effectiveness analysis for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE)'s pathways pilot.
methodsUsing materials from the structured expert elicitation resources (STEER) repository, aligned with the Medical Research Council (MRC) protocol, the exercise was planned and conducted. Aiming for 5-10 oncologists from diverse UK geographies and settings, experts estimated progression-free survival (PFS) at three landmark timepoints for 21 disease-risk-prior treatment combinations and overall survival for best supportive care. Within an 8-week timeframe, we piloted with one clinician, conducted online training, collected responses via an online survey using the roulette method and mathematically aggregated results through linear opinion pooling.
resultsNine experts participated (question response rate: 95%). For first-line intermediate/poor-risk patients, clinicians projected similar PFS for three immune oncology/tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) combinations from 5 years onward and comparable PFS for two TKI monotherapies. Nivolumab + ipilimumab was anticipated to achieve the highest PFS amongst first-line therapies. Expert reasoning incorporated treatment class, clinical experience, and awareness of trial data optimism. Expert estimates were generally somewhat optimistic compared with observed UK real-world evidence and pessimistic compared with observed trial data.
conclusionsStructured expert elicitation is a pragmatic, efficient approach for informing long-term survival extrapolations in the context of a rapidly evolving treatment pathway. We demonstrated that expert elicitation is possible even for complex decision problems in a relatively short timeframe.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.