Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40863261›Full record

ArticleInfectious disease reports2025

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue in the State of Pará and the Socio-Environmental Determinants in Eastern Brazilian Amazon.

Brenda Caroline Sampaio da Silva, Ricardo José de Paula Souza E Guimarães, Bruno Spacek Godoy, Andressa Tavares Parente, Bergson Cavalcanti de Moraes, Marcia Aparecida da Silva Pimentel, Douglas Batista da Silva Ferreira, Emilene Monteiro Furtado Serra, João de Athaydes Silva Junior, Luciano Jorge Serejo Dos Anjos and 1 more

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Article in Infectious disease reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

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0 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Brenda Caroline Sampaio da SilvaPrograma de Pos-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais (PPGCA), Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém 66075-110, PA, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-1177-7486
Ricardo José de Paula Souza E GuimarãesLaboratório de Geoprocessamento, Instituto Evandro Chagas, Ananindeua 67030-000, PA, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-5767-4765
Bruno Spacek GodoyPrograma de Pos-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais (PPGCA), Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém 66075-110, PA, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-9751-9885
Andressa Tavares ParenteInstituto de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém 67075-110, PA, Brazil.
Bergson Cavalcanti de MoraesFaculdade de Meteorologia, Programa de Pos-Graduação em Gestão de Risco e Desastre na Amazônia, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém 66075-110, PA, Brazil.
Marcia Aparecida da Silva PimentelPrograma de Pos-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais (PPGCA), Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém 66075-110, PA, Brazil.
Douglas Batista da Silva FerreiraInstituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém 67055-090, PA, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-8868-7235
Emilene Monteiro Furtado SerraPrograma de Pos-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais (PPGCA), Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém 66075-110, PA, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-2670-5805
João de Athaydes Silva JuniorFaculdade de Meteorologia, Programa de Pos-Graduação em Gestão de Risco e Desastre na Amazônia, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém 66075-110, PA, Brazil.
Luciano Jorge Serejo Dos AnjosPrograma de Pos-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais (PPGCA), Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém 66075-110, PA, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-3270-6679
Everaldo Barreiros de SouzaPrograma de Pos-Graduação em Ciências Ambientais (PPGCA), Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém 66075-110, PA, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-6045-0984

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe Amazon biome exhibits complex arboviral transmission dynamics influenced by accelerating deforestation, climate change, and socioeconomic inequities. OBJECTIVES/

methodsThis study integrates official epidemiological records with socioeconomic, environmental, and climate variables by applying advanced geostatistical methods (Moran's I, SaTScan, kernel density estimation) combined with principal component analysis and negative binomial regression to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue incidence and its association with socio-environmental determinants across municipalities in Pará state (eastern Brazilian Amazon) from 2010 to 2024.

resultsDengue incidence showed an overall decline but with marked epidemic peaks in 2010-2012, 2016, and 2024. The spatial analysis revealed significant clustering (Moran's I = 0.221,

conclusionsDengue transmission in the Amazon is driven by synergistic socio-environmental disruptions, necessitating intersectoral policies that bridge public health surveillance, sustainable land-use governance, and poverty alleviation. Priority actions include targeted vector control in high-risk clusters, coupled with integrated deforestation and climate monitoring to predict outbreak risks. The findings emphasize the urgency of implementing multisectoral interventions tailored to the territorial and socio-environmental complexities of vulnerable Amazonian regions for effective dengue control.

Indexed as

deforestation-driven disease riskdengue risk modelingeastern Amazonspatial epidemiology

Identifiers

PMID40863261
PMCPMC12386659

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.