ArticleBMC pulmonary medicine2025
Global trends and future projections of COPD burden under low-temperature risk: a 1990-2041 analysis based on GBD 2021.
Article in BMC pulmonary medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effects of Pulmonary Rehabilitation Nursing on Pulmonary Function and Exercise Capacity in Patients With COPD: A Meta-Analysis.Nursing in critical care · 2026Pooled it
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundLow temperatures are an important risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, trends and projections of the global burden of COPD at low temperatures are unclear.
methodsBased on data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), this study assessed trends in the global and regional burden of death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to COPD from 1990 to 2021, and identified patterns of change in different regions. A Bayesian Age-Period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the burden of COPD over the next 20 years.
resultsAlthough the number of COPD deaths worldwide in 2021 increased from 242,170 in 1990 to 300,849, and the number of DALYs increased from 4,749,734 to 4,981,981, the age-standardized deaths rate decreased from 7.04 to 3.69 per 100,000, and the DALYs rate decreased from 126.69 to 59.22 per 100,000. Up to 2021, men consistently bore a higher burden than women, though their age-standardized deaths rate declined more sharply (54.2% vs. 39.2%). COPD burden increased notably after age 45, with those aged 65 and older contributing most to the total and showing the steepest rise. By SDI level, middle and middle-high SDI regions had the highest burden but saw the fastest declines, while low and low-middle SDI areas carried heavier burdens with slower reductions. High SDI regions maintained low and stable burden levels. BAPC projections suggest a continued but slower decline in COPD mortality linked to low temperature by 2041, with a projected drop of 1.39 per 100,000, less than the 3.35 per 100,000 reduction observed from 1990 to 2021.
conclusionGlobal age-standardized mortality and DALYs for COPD at risk of low temperatures have declined over the past 30 years, with absolute burden numbers, BAPC predicting a slower rate of decline in the future, and persistent cross-country health inequalities. More precise interventions should be developed to target the resistance to low-temperature risk in older age groups and areas with low SDI.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.