Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40850922›Full record

Observational studyBMJ open2025

Development, internal and external validation of a prognostic model for symptom dissatisfaction among older adults with a new episode of back pain.

Ann-Christin Sannes, Daniel Feller, Are Hugo Pripp, Alessandro Chiarotto, Lise Kretz Grøndahl, Rikke Munk Killingmo, Iben Axén, Kjersti Storheim, Margreth Grotle, Ørjan Nesse Vigdal

Registry-linked trialAbstract readObservational StudyValidation Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMJ open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04261309 (BACk Pain in Elders in Norway), which is not on this map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04261309 completednot on this map

BACk Pain in Elders in Norway (BACE-N); A Prospective Cohort Study of Older People Visiting Primary Care With a New Episode of Back Pain

TypeobservationalSponsorOslo Metropolitan UniversityRan2017 to 2022Enrolled452ConditionsBack PainArmsUsual care
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Ann-Christin SannesDepartment of Rehabilitation Science and Health Technology, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway annchris@oslomet.no.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3918-8149
Daniel FellerDepartment of General Practice, Erasmus MC University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Are Hugo PrippDepartment of Rehabilitation Science and Health Technology, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway.
Alessandro ChiarottoDepartment of General Practice, Erasmus MC University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Lise Kretz GrøndahlDepartment of Rehabilitation Science and Health Technology, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway.
Rikke Munk KillingmoDepartment of Rehabilitation Science and Health Technology, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1971-2449
Iben AxénIMM Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5251-5995
Kjersti StorheimDepartment of Rehabilitation Science and Health Technology, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway.
Margreth GrotleDepartment of Rehabilitation Science and Health Technology, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8243-1143
Ørjan Nesse VigdalDepartment of Rehabilitation Science and Health Technology, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5075-7720

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesThe objective was to develop, internally and externally validate a prognostic model for symptom dissatisfaction, assessed by the patient acceptable symptom state (PASS), for older adults (≥55 years) seeking primary care for a new episode of back pain.

designDevelopment, internal and external validation of a prognostic model using data from two prospective cohort studies with a 1-year follow-up was conducted. PARTICIPANTS AND

settingThe Norwegian cohort (n=452) was used for model development and internal validation. External validation was conducted using the Dutch cohort (n=675). OUTCOME MEASURES AND

methodThe outcome was defined as symptom dissatisfaction based on the PASS at 12 months follow-up. A logistic regression model was developed using backward selection and internally validated using 200 bootstrap samples. External validation included recalibration of the model intercept and slope. Model performance was measured using Nagelkerke-R

resultsAt 12 months, ~55% reported dissatisfaction in both cohorts. The final model included disability, catastrophising, recent back pain episode, spinal rotation pain, baseline symptom satisfaction, symptom duration and recovery expectation as predictors. The internally validated model showed acceptable discrimination (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78), R

conclusionsThis prognostic model could be a useful tool for predicting PASS outcomes among older adults with back pain. The external validation results imply that more research is needed to optimise predictions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04261309.

Indexed as

Back PainPatient SatisfactionAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleHumansLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle AgedNetherlandsNorwayPrimary Health CarePrognosisProspective StudiesReproducibility of ResultsBack painHealth Services for the AgedPatient SatisfactionPrognosis

Identifiers

PMID40850922
PMCPMC12410640

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.