Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40843954›Full record

ArticleAlzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association2025

The risk of delirium or dementia-related hospitalization among individuals living with dementia after long-term care entry: A population-based risk prediction model.

Tesfahun C Eshetie, Gillian E Caughey, Catherine Lang, Craig Whitehead, Maria Crotty, Megan Corlis, Renuka Visvanathan, Maria C Inacio

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

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0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Tesfahun C EshetieRegistry of Senior Australians Research Centre, South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
Gillian E CaugheyRegistry of Senior Australians Research Centre, South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
Catherine LangRegistry of Senior Australians Research Centre, South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
Craig WhiteheadCollege of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Bedford Park, South Australia, Australia.
Maria CrottyCollege of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Bedford Park, South Australia, Australia.
Megan CorlisAustralian Nursing and Midwifery Federation (SA Branch), Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
Renuka VisvanathanAdelaide Geriatrics Training and Research with Aged Care (GTRAC) Centre, Adelaide Medical School, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
Maria C InacioRegistry of Senior Australians Research Centre, South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Investigator GNT119378 to M.C.I.National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Investigator GNT2026400 to G.E.C.
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionIdentifying individuals with dementia in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) at risk for delirium or dementia-related hospitalizations can support individualized risk mitigation.

methodsUsing the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA) Historical National Cohort (N = 207343 individuals with dementia in 2655 LTCFs), we identified predictors of delirium or dementia-related hospitalization within 365 days of LTCF entry and developed a risk prediction model using elastic net penalized regression and Fine-Gray model. Model discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), calibration and clinical utility were assessed.

resultsWithin 365 days, 5.2% (N = 10709) of individuals had a delirium or dementia-related hospitalization. Forty predictors were identified, strongest included history of frequent emergency department presentations, physical violence history, being male, and prior delirium. Model AUC was 0.664 (95% confidence interval: 0.650-0.676) with reasonable calibration. DISCUSSION: Our risk prediction model for delirium or dementia-related hospitalizations had moderate discrimination with reasonable calibration and clinical utility. Routinely collected data can inform risk profiling in LTCFs. HIGHLIGHTS: Using a large population-based cohort of people living with dementia, we developed a risk prediction model for delirium or dementia-related hospitalization within 365 days of long-term care facility (LTCF) entry. Within 365 days after entry into LTCF, 5.2% of individuals living with dementia had a delirium or dementia-related hospitalization. The model demonstrated moderate discriminatory performance (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.664, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.650-0.676) and reasonable calibration in predicting delirium or dementia-related hospitalization risk. Our model showed net benefits within 2%-22% risk threshold ranges assessed via decision curve analysis . Risk stratification at LTCF entry may support clinicians and aged care providers in identifying high risk individuals and implementing targeted interventions to reduce delirium or dementia-related hospitalizations .

Indexed as

DeliriumDementiaHospitalizationLong-Term CareAgedAged, 80 and overAustraliaCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleRegistriesRisk AssessmentRisk Factorsdeliriumdementiahospitalizationlong‐term carenursing homesrisk‐predictionrisk profiling

Identifiers

PMID40843954
PMCPMC12371554

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.