ArticleEpidemiology and health2025
Risk factors for Q fever incidence in Korea: a comparative analysis using frequentist and Bayesian methods.
Article in Epidemiology and health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectivesThis study investigated the principal determinants of human Q fever incidence and explored regional variation between metropolitan cities and provinces in Korea.
methodsPanel data on human Q fever incidence, livestock populations, and facility metrics were collected across 17 metropolitan cities and provinces from 2017 to 2024. Analytical approaches included frequentist models (ordinary least squares [OLS], random effects [RE], fixed effects [FE]) and Bayesian models.
resultsFrequentist panel analysis indicated that slaughterhouse count was positively associated with Q fever incidence in both pooled OLS (β=1.20, p<0.001) and RE models (β=1.03, p<0.001), but not in the FE model (β=0.14, p=0.65). After correcting for serial correlation using Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, livestock population (β=0.55, p<0.01), livestock market count (β=-2.01, p<0.05), and livestock Q fever cases (β=-0.11, p<0.01) were significantly associated with human incidence. A Bayesian FE model confirmed a significant relationship between slaughterhouses and human Q fever incidence (posterior mean: 0.87; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.21 to 1.42), providing more stable inference with limited samples and allowing probabilistic uncertainty estimation. A Bayesian hierarchical model revealed a stronger association in metropolitan cities (posterior mean, 1.46; 95% CrI, 0.34 to 2.57) than in provinces (1.22), while livestock population remained significant in provinces (0.94; 95% CrI, 0.15 to 1.74).
conclusionsIn Korea, slaughterhouse density was the main determinant of Q fever in metropolitan cities and livestock density was the primary risk factor in provinces. These findings underscore the need for region-specific preventive strategies and reinforce the value of a One Health approach.
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