ArticleScientific reports2025
On a microdemographic framework for decomposing contemporary fertility dynamics.
Article in Scientific reports, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) obscures key components of fertility dynamics, leading to a calculated 49% information loss and a substantive 0·385 reduction in Adjusted R² compared to its decomposed components: the Total Maternal Rate (TMR) and Children per Mother (CPM), formalized in this study, where TFR = TMR × CPM. Further, TMR and CPM were found to be statistically independent, which is demonstrated to lead to ambiguity in the TFR, findings that carry important implications for demographic analysis and policy evaluation. Aggregated birth data from 158 million mothers in Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States were analyzed from national statistical databases
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