Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40838260›Full record

ArticleNPJ climate and atmospheric science2025

Contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere.

Mengxin Pan, Shineng Hu, Benjamin F Zaitchik, William K Pan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ climate and atmospheric science, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Mengxin PanNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC USA.
Shineng HuNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC USA.
Benjamin F ZaitchikDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD USA.
William K PanNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC USA.

Funding

Improving Response to Malaria Outbreaks in Amazon-Basin CountriesR01AI151056 · NIAID · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI PAN, WILLIAM KUANG-YAO · 2021 to 2025
$3.4M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI151056
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Previous modeling studies have indicated that Atmospheric rivers (ARs) will become more frequent in the warming climate. However, whether we have experienced more ARs during historical period is less studied. Here, we show that winter AR frequency has significantly increased over the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere from 1950-2022. Using station-based observations, we confirm that ARs have driven coherent long-term trends in both total and extreme precipitation over land. The warming-induced rise in atmospheric moisture alone accounts for an AR frequency increase of ~0.6-0.8% per decade. AR trends exhibit meridional dipolar patterns over western North America and Europe, governed by positive trends of the Pacific-North America Pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation. The "Pineapple Express" ARs have been suppressed, declining of AR landfalling over the Pacific Northwest. Through atmospheric model analyses, we demonstrate that observed sea surface temperature changes dominate Atlantic AR trends, while exerting minor effects on Pacific AR trends.

Indexed as

Atmospheric dynamicsClimate change

Identifiers

PMID40838260
PMCPMC12360949

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.