Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40836134›Full record

ReviewNature2025

Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment.

Nerilie J Abram, Ariaan Purich, Matthew H England, Felicity S McCormack, Jan M Strugnell, Dana M Bergstrom, Tessa R Vance, Tobias Stål, Barbara Wienecke, Petra Heil and 11 more

Abstract readReview
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Nature, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Changes in species composition of South Georgia seabirds and mammals 1985-2023: decrease in opportunities for local enhancement?Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. The emerging Antarctic amplification.National science review · 2026
    Article
  7. The Antarctic Treaty System needs a disaster management authority to guard the continent against disasters.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Spotlight on our AI policies.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025
    Article
  13. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

21 authors.

Nerilie J AbramResearch School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Ngunnawal and Ngambri Country, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia. nerilie.abram@anu.edu.au.ORCID 0000-0003-1246-2344
Ariaan PurichSecuring Antarctica's Environmental Future, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-2248-5937
Matthew H EnglandCentre for Marine Science and Innovation (CMSI), University of New South Wales, Eora Nation, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-9696-2930
Felicity S McCormackSecuring Antarctica's Environmental Future, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
Jan M StrugnellCentre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture and College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Bindal Country, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-2994-637X
Dana M BergstromEnvironmental Futures, University of Wollongong, Dharawal Country, New South Wales, Australia.
Tessa R VanceAustralian Antarctic Program Partnership, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-6970-8646
Tobias StålAustralian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-4323-6748
Barbara WieneckeAustralian Antarctic Division, piramina/Kingston, Tasmania, Australia.
Petra HeilAustralian Antarctic Program Partnership, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-2078-0342
Edward W DoddridgeAustralian Antarctic Program Partnership, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Jean-Baptiste SalléeSorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, MNHN, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN-IPSL), Paris, France.
Thomas J WilliamsInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Anya M ReadingAustralian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-9316-7605
Andrew MackintoshSecuring Antarctica's Environmental Future, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
Ronja ReeseGeography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7625-040X
Ricarda WinkelmannMax Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Integrative Earth System Science, Jena, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-1248-3217
Ann Kristin KlosePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Philip W BoydAustralian Antarctic Program Partnership, University of Tasmania, nipaluna/Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-7850-1911
Steven L ChownSecuring Antarctica's Environmental Future, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-6069-5105
Sharon A RobinsonEnvironmental Futures, University of Wollongong, Dharawal Country, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-7130-9617

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Human-caused climate change worsens with every increment of additional warming, although some impacts can develop abruptly. The potential for abrupt changes is far less understood in the Antarctic compared with the Arctic, but evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss. A marked slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is expected to intensify this century and may be faster than the anticipated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown. The tipping point for unstoppable ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be exceeded even under best-case CO

Indexed as

Climate ChangeEcosystemAnimalsAntarctic RegionsArctic RegionsCarbon DioxideExtinction, BiologicalGlobal WarmingHumansIce CoverOceans and SeasSeawaterCarbon Dioxide

Identifiers

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.