Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40835969›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2025

AI-driven reclassification of multiple sclerosis progression.

Habib Ganjgahi, Dieter A Häring, Piet Aarden, Gordon Graham, Yang Sun, Stephen Gardiner, Wendy Su, Claude Berge, Antje Bischof, Elizabeth Fisher and 12 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Big data in multiple sclerosis.Current opinion in neurology · 2026
    Review
  10. Mechanistic Insights into the Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in the Diagnosis and Management of Multiple Sclerosis.Pathophysiology : the official journal of the International Society for Pathophysiology · 2026
    Review
  11. Psychotropic medication use and bone fracture risk among patients with multiple sclerosis: a real-world study.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2026
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Multiple sclerosis: 2026 update.Free neuropathology · 2026
    Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Habib Ganjgahi *Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Dieter A Häring *Novartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5690-8710
Piet AardenNovartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7826-7985
Gordon GrahamNovartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.
Yang SunBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5483-0953
Stephen GardinerBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5157-1087
Wendy SuNovartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.
Claude BergeRoche, Basel, Switzerland.
Antje BischofClinic and Polyclinic for Neurology, University Hospital Münster, Münster, Germany.
Elizabeth FisherNovartis Biomedical Research, Cambridge, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3384-3704
Laura GaetanoNovartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5214-2858
Stefan P ThomaRoche, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5553-9252
Bernd C KieseierNovartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.
Thomas E NicholsBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4516-5103
Alan J ThompsonNational Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery (NHNN), London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4333-8496
Xavier MontalbanDepartment of Neurology and Centre d'Esclerosi Multiple de Catalunya (Cemcat), Vall d'Hebron University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain.
Fred D LublinCorinne Goldsmith Dickinson Center for Multiple Sclerosis, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5722-0475
Ludwig KapposClinic and Policlinic for Neurology, and MS Center, Department of Head, Spine and Neuromedicine, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4175-5509
Douglas L ArnoldBrain Imaging Centre, Montreal Neurological Institute and Hospital, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4266-0106
Robert A BermelDepartment of Neurology, Mellen MS Center, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2334-6883
Heinz WiendlDepartment of Neurology with Institute of Translational Neurology, University Hospital Münster, Münster, Germany. heinz.wiendl@uniklinik-freiburg.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4310-3432
Chris C HolmesDepartment of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6667-4943

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Multiple sclerosis (MS) affects 2.9 million people. Traditional classification of MS into distinct subtypes poorly reflects its pathobiology and has limited value for prognosticating disease evolution and treatment response, thereby hampering drug discovery. Here we report a data-driven classification of MS disease evolution by analyzing a large clinical trial database (approximately 8,000 patients, 118,000 patient visits and more than 35,000 magnetic resonance imaging scans) using probabilistic machine learning. Four dimensions define MS disease states: physical disability, brain damage, relapse and subclinical disease activity. Early/mild/evolving (EME) MS and advanced MS represent two poles of a disease severity spectrum. Patients with EME MS show limited clinical impairment and minor brain damage. Transitions to advanced MS occur via brain damage accumulation through inflammatory states, with or without accompanying symptoms. Advanced MS is characterized by moderate to high disability levels, radiological disease burden and risk of disease progression independent of relapses, with little probability of returning to earlier MS states. We validated these results in an independent clinical trial database and a real-world cohort, totaling more than 4,000 patients with MS. Our findings support viewing MS as a disease continuum. We propose a streamlined disease classification to offer a unifying understanding of the disease, improve patient management and enhance drug discovery efficiency and precision.

Indexed as

Artificial IntelligenceMultiple SclerosisAdultBrainDatabases, FactualDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansMachine LearningMagnetic Resonance ImagingMaleMiddle Aged

Identifiers

PMID40835969
PMCPMC12532606

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.