Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40832061›Full record

ArticleChina CDC weekly2025

A Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast of Rabies Epidemic and Elimination Challenges - China, 2005-2023.

Na Zhang, Xiaonuo Xu, Minghui Zhang, Yuan Xie, Pengcheng Yu, Shuqing Liu, Qian Liu, Xiaoyan Tao, Wuyang Zhu

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in China CDC weekly, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Na ZhangNational Key Laboratory of Medical Viruses and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Xiaonuo XuNational Key Laboratory of Medical Viruses and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Minghui ZhangNational Key Laboratory of Medical Viruses and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Yuan XieNational Key Laboratory of Medical Viruses and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Pengcheng YuNational Key Laboratory of Medical Viruses and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Shuqing LiuNational Key Laboratory of Medical Viruses and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Qian LiuNational Key Laboratory of Medical Viruses and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Xiaoyan TaoNational Key Laboratory of Medical Viruses and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Wuyang ZhuNational Key Laboratory of Medical Viruses and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Introduction: The 2030 global target for eliminating dog-mediated human rabies, jointly proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other international organizations, presents significant challenges for China. This study analyzes epidemiological trends (2005-2023), forecasts future case numbers, and compares China's progress with elimination strategies from the United States, Japan, and Brazil to optimize national rabies prevention and control approaches. Methods: Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of human rabies cases across China. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was employed to forecast cases for the next two years, with the optimal model selected based on indicators, including the Akaike information criterion. Results: 24,566 human rabies cases were reported in China from 2005 to 2023. Over these 19 years, rabies prevalence shifted from southeastern to northwestern regions. Provincial trends varied significantly: 14 provincial-level administrative divisions, including Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, achieved zero cases; Shandong, Shanxi, and Chongqing experienced a resurgence; Guangxi, Henan, Hunan, and Anhui maintained high endemic levels; while other regions showed a steady decline. The SARIMA (0,1,2)(2,1,1) Conclusions: To achieve the 2030 rabies elimination goal in China, implementing a comprehensive, large-scale dog vaccination strategy is essential within the remaining timeframe.

Indexed as

EliminationRabiesSARIMA ModelTime Series Analysis

Identifiers

PMID40832061
PMCPMC12360317

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.