Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40831975›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of nursing studies advances2025

A nomogram and risk stratification for predicting subsyndromal delirium in elderly patients in a post-anaesthesia care unit: A prospective cohort study.

Guoting Ma, Wenjun Yan, Qian Yang, Yanjia Li, Lingkai Wang

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Article in International journal of nursing studies advances, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

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1 citing paper in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Guoting MaDepartment of Anesthesiology, Gansu Provincial Hospital, No.204 Donggang West Road, Lanzhou 730000, China.
Wenjun YanDepartment of Anesthesiology, Gansu Provincial Hospital, No.204 Donggang West Road, Lanzhou 730000, China.
Qian YangSchool of Nursing, Chengdu Medical college, No.783 Xindu Avenue, Chengdu 610500, China.
Yanjia LiDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Sichuan Taikang Hospital, Chengdu 610213, China.
Lingkai WangDepartment of Anesthesiology, Gansu Provincial Hospital, No.204 Donggang West Road, Lanzhou 730000, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Subsyndromal delirium, as a transitional state of postoperative delirium, does not meet the diagnostic threshold for delirium but independently contributes to adverse outcomes in elderly patients. Early identification and intervention can effectively prevent disease progression. Objective: This study focuses on the post-anesthesia care unit, a critical window period for postoperative recovery, aiming to develop a reliable risk prediction model. Design: A prospective cohort study. Methods: Subsyndromal delirium was assessed with the Confusion Assessment Method at 30 min post-extubation and pre-transfer. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariate logistic regression were applied to screen independent predictors and construct a nomogram. The performance of the model was evaluated by discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. Patients were subsequently divided into low-risk and high-risk subgroups. Results: The overall incidence of subsyndromal delirium in 2636 elderly patients in the post-anesthesia care unit was 18.6 %. Age, latest neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, nighttime surgery, intraoperative hypothermia, patient-controlled analgesia usage, and duration of mechanical ventilation in the post-anesthesia care unit were identified as independent risk factors for predicting subsyndromal delirium. The areas under the ROC curve of the model were 0.904 (95 % CI: 0.878-0.931) and 0.850 (95 % CI: 0.814-0.886) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis demonstrated good consistency and clinical value. Significant differences in subsyndromal delirium rates were observed between the low-risk and high-risk groups ( Conclusions: The developed nomogram model incorporating six clinical variables demonstrated excellent discrimination and calibration, with its risk stratification effectively identifying high-risk subsyndromal delirium patients.

Indexed as

DeliriumNomogramPost-anesthesia care unitRisk stratificationSubsyndromal delirium

Identifiers

PMID40831975
PMCPMC12359253

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.