Dietary attribution to burden of chronic disease in Australia: a systematic analysis of the Australian Institute of health and welfare 2024 national burden of disease dataset.

Background: Non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs), including cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), pose a significant burden on Australia's healthcare system. Despite advancements in disease prevention and management, NCDs remain the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to assess trends in the burden of NCDs and the impact of dietary risks in Australia from 2003 to 2024 using data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW). Methods: Data were from the AIHW 2024 burden of disease dataset, which provided estimates for mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Since the 2024 death counts were missing, total mortality attributable to dietary risks was expressed as the percentage change from 2003 to 2018. Joinpoint Regression was performed to assess DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs of NCDs from 2003 to 2024, analyze the contribution of various dietary risk factors to the disease burden and conduct subgroup comparisons based on sex. Findings: From 2003 to 2018, mortality attributed to dietary risks declined by 15.29%. From 2003 to 2024, dietary risks attributable to DALYs decreased by 16.93%. Atrial fibrillation showed the most significant decline in both mortality (-10.0%) and DALYs (-7.81%), driven by a reduction in high-sodium diets. In contrast, inflammatory heart disease experienced the highest increases in DALYs, rising by 18.18% percentage change, which is associated with diet high in sodium. Breast cancer showed the most significant growth driven by diet high in red meat in dietary attributable DALYs, with a percentage change of 6.45%; and in deaths, with a percentage change of 6.67%. T2DM also illustrated a slight increase in dietary attributable DALYs driven by a diet high in red meat, with a percentage change of 2.36%, and in deaths driven by a diet high in processed meat, with a percentage change of 4.10%. In contrast, CKD decreased due to reduction of high sodium in dietary attributable DALYs, with a percentage change of 1.49%, and deaths, with a percentage change of 3.13%. Males showed an increase in risks related to high sodium consumption, with inflammatory heart disease DALYs rising by 15.38%, and a rise in oesophageal cancer deaths linked to low vegetable intake, with a percentage change of 14.49%. Females experienced an increase in T2DM DALYs attributable to high red meat consumption, with a percentage change of 10.26%, and a significant rise in coronary heart disease deaths associated with high sodium intake, with a percentage change of 18.97%. Interpretation: These findings emphasize the ongoing impact of dietary risks on NCDs burden in Australia and underscore the need for sex-specific and targeted dietary interventions to reduce preventable NCDs. Strengthening public health policies, dietary guidelines, and awareness campaigns is crucial for mitigating the impact of poor diet on long-term health outcomes. Funding: AIHW is primarily funded by the Australian Government, with additional funding from state and territory governments.