ArticleNature food2025
Scenario analysis of nitrogen surplus typologies in Europe shows that a 20% fertilizer reduction may fall short of 2030 EU Green Deal goals.
Article in Nature food, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- The long tail of nitrate pollution in groundwater challenges governance of global water quality.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Agrifood companies must take responsibility for nitrogen pollution.Nature food · 2026Article
- Nitrogen efficiency falls short of environmental targets.Nature food · 2025Article
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7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The Farm to Fork (F2F) Strategy under the Green Deal aims to halve nutrient losses by 2030 in the European Union (EU). Here, using the nitrogen surplus as an indicator for nitrogen losses in agricultural areas, we explore a range of scenarios for nitrogen surplus reduction across EU landscapes. We identify four nitrogen surplus typologies, each responding differently to input reduction. A 20% decrease in synthetic fertilizer alone is projected to reduce the nitrogen surplus by only 10-16%, falling short of F2F goals. Specific top-down scenarios such as reducing synthetic fertilizer by 43% and animal manure by 4%, coupled with improved technological and management practices, can achieve a reduction of up to 30-45% in nitrogen surplus. Among the most ambitious scenarios, only a handful of EU countries (four to five) may meet the intended F2F nitrogen pollution targets. Achieving F2F goals requires region-specific strategies to reduce nitrogen use while improving efficiency and sustaining productivity.
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