ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2025
Climate variability amplifies the need for vector-borne disease outbreak preparedness.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with bluetongue and Schmallenberg virus infections in domestic small ruminants in Türkiye.Tropical animal health and production · 2026Article
- Assessing risks of dengue, chikungunya and Zika transmission associated to Aedes albopictus in Chania, Greece, 2017-2018.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In locations that do not currently experience vector-borne disease (VBD) outbreaks but may be at risk under climate change, modeling future climate suitability for transmission is important for outbreak preparedness. Uncertainty in the future climate arises from three sources-differences in emissions scenarios, structural uncertainty across climate models, and internal climate variability (ICV)-but ICV is rarely considered in climate-VBD studies. Here, we demonstrate that ICV is a key source of uncertainty in climate suitability for VBD transmission, even decades into the future. Because of ICV, suitable climate conditions for transmission may arise in many locations sooner than expected under climate change alone.
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