SynthesisHealth technology assessment (Winchester, England)2025

Determining optimal strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a synopsis of an evidence synthesis study.

Olalekan A Uthman, Lena Al-Khudairy, Chidozie Nduka, Rachel Court, Jodie Enderby, Seun Anjorin, Hema Mistry, G J Melendez-Torres, Sian Taylor-Phillips, Aileen Clarke

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 2025. The graph read 7 numbers from its abstract, feeding 5 cells of the map, but none could be read as for or against, so it casts no vote. It also reports 3 associations that do not count as treatment evidence, such as RR 0.81 (0.71 to 0.91) for composite cardiovascular disease events and mortality. Cited by 2 papers.

7numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

Read, but not usablea number the graph found but could not read as for or against

Composite cardiovascular disease events and mortalitystatins vs controlan association or prognostic statement, not a treatment comparison · ascvdfeeds one cell of the map
RR 0.810.71 to 0.91
The network meta-analysis found that antihypertensives (relative risk 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.90), intensive blood pressure control (relative risk 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.96), statins (relative risk 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.91) and multifactorial lifestyle interventions (relative risk 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.92) significantly reduced composite cardiovascular disease events and mortality.
Composite cardiovascular disease events and mortalityantihypertensives vs controlan association or prognostic statement, not a treatment comparison · ascvdfeeds one cell of the map
RR 0.760.64 to 0.90
The network meta-analysis found that antihypertensives (relative risk 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.90), intensive blood pressure control (relative risk 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.96), statins (relative risk 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.91) and multifactorial lifestyle interventions (relative risk 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.92) significantly reduced composite cardiovascular disease events and mortality.
Composite cardiovascular disease events and mortalitymultifactorial lifestyle interventions vs controlan association or prognostic statement, not a treatment comparison · ascvdfeeds one cell of the map
RR 0.750.61 to 0.92
The network meta-analysis found that antihypertensives (relative risk 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.90), intensive blood pressure control (relative risk 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.96), statins (relative risk 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.91) and multifactorial lifestyle interventions (relative risk 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.92) significantly reduced composite cardiovascular disease events and mortality.
All-cause mortalitystatins vs controlan association or prognostic statement, not a treatment comparison · ascvdfeeds one cell of the map
RR 0.66
Results: The umbrella review found that antiplatelets reduced major cardiovascular disease events in 8/17 meta-analyses (relative risks 0.85-0.97), while statins reduced cardiovascular disease mortality (relative risks 0.71-0.89), all-cause mortality (relative risks 0.66-0.93) and major cardiovascular disease events (relative risks 0.59-0.90). sodium-glucose transport protein 2 inhibitors reduced major cardiovascular disease events by 8% (relative risk 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.95) and all-cause mortality by 6% (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.98).
Cardiovascular disease mortalitystatins vs controlan association or prognostic statement, not a treatment comparison · ascvdfeeds one cell of the map
RR 0.71
Results: The umbrella review found that antiplatelets reduced major cardiovascular disease events in 8/17 meta-analyses (relative risks 0.85-0.97), while statins reduced cardiovascular disease mortality (relative risks 0.71-0.89), all-cause mortality (relative risks 0.66-0.93) and major cardiovascular disease events (relative risks 0.59-0.90). sodium-glucose transport protein 2 inhibitors reduced major cardiovascular disease events by 8% (relative risk 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.95) and all-cause mortality by 6% (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.98).
Major cardiovascular disease eventsstatins vs controlan association or prognostic statement, not a treatment comparison · ascvdfeeds one cell of the map
RR 0.59
Results: The umbrella review found that antiplatelets reduced major cardiovascular disease events in 8/17 meta-analyses (relative risks 0.85-0.97), while statins reduced cardiovascular disease mortality (relative risks 0.71-0.89), all-cause mortality (relative risks 0.66-0.93) and major cardiovascular disease events (relative risks 0.59-0.90). sodium-glucose transport protein 2 inhibitors reduced major cardiovascular disease events by 8% (relative risk 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.95) and all-cause mortality by 6% (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.98).
Major cardiovascular disease eventsantiplatelets vs controlan association or prognostic statement, not a treatment comparison · ascvdfeeds one cell of the map
RR 0.85
Results: The umbrella review found that antiplatelets reduced major cardiovascular disease events in 8/17 meta-analyses (relative risks 0.85-0.97), while statins reduced cardiovascular disease mortality (relative risks 0.71-0.89), all-cause mortality (relative risks 0.66-0.93) and major cardiovascular disease events (relative risks 0.59-0.90). sodium-glucose transport protein 2 inhibitors reduced major cardiovascular disease events by 8% (relative risk 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.95) and all-cause mortality by 6% (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.98).

clause the extractor read what became the number

2 · Its place on the map

Where it lands on the map

Rows are treatments, columns are outcomes. The coloured squares are the cells this paper feeds, coloured by the vote it casts there. Click one to jump to what this paper adds to it.

supports the treatmentfavours the comparatorno clear differenceread, but no usable result
3 · What it changes

What it adds to each cell

For every cell the paper feeds: the belief in the claim with and without this paper, and this paper's estimate drawn against every other readable study in the cell. The ringed dot is this paper.

Antihypertensives×all-cause mortality

No readable resultOpen on the map →What to test next →

No other readable study in this cell yet. This paper is the evidence.

Belief with this paperNo claim has been compiled for this cell yet.

Antiplatelet & anticoagulant×adverse events & safety

No readable resultOpen on the map →What to test next →

1 readable study in this cell: 0 favour the treatment, 1 find no difference, 0 favour the comparator.

Belief with this paper
0.25no deciding trial · 0 families support, 0 contradict · against placebo
Without itNot a counted family in this claim, so removing it changes nothing.
← favours the treatmentfavours the comparator →
1 · no effect

This paper's own estimate is on a different scale from the rest of the cell, so it is not drawn here.

Diet, exercise & lifestyle×all-cause mortality

No readable resultOpen on the map →What to test next →

1 readable study in this cell: 0 favour the treatment, 1 find no difference, 0 favour the comparator.

Belief with this paper
0.25no deciding trial · 0 families support, 0 contradict · against placebo
Without itNot a counted family in this claim, so removing it changes nothing.
← favours the treatmentfavours the comparator →
1 · no effect
NCT000387272,779 enrolled · 1996
HR 1.020.81 to 1.28

This paper's own estimate is on a different scale from the rest of the cell, so it is not drawn here.

Statins×all-cause mortality

No readable resultOpen on the map →What to test next →

13 readable studies in this cell: 3 favour the treatment, 8 find no difference, 2 favour the comparator.

Belief with this paper
0.50contested · 3 families support, 2 contradict · against placebo
Without itNot a counted family in this claim, so removing it changes nothing.
← favours the treatmentfavours the comparator →
1 · no effect
NCT023442907,769 enrolled · 2015
HR 0.880.70 to 1.12
HR 1.010.91 to 1.11
NCT03944512102 enrolled · 2019
RR 0.670.37 to 1.19
RR 0.990.89 to 1.11

This paper's own estimate is on a different scale from the rest of the cell, so it is not drawn here.

Statins×adverse events & safety

No readable resultOpen on the map →What to test next →

11 readable studies in this cell: 3 favour the treatment, 7 find no difference, 1 favour the comparator.

Belief with this paper
0.16contested · 1 family supports, 4 contradict · against placebo
Without itNot a counted family in this claim, so removing it changes nothing.
← favours the comparatorfavours the treatment →
0 · no effect
NCT002899002,340 enrolled · 2006
Δ 13.79.40 to 18.0
NCT01294683977 enrolled · 2011
Δ -1.03-7.30 to 5.25
NCT00728988499 enrolled · 2008
Δ 1.00-7.30 to 9.30
NCT01678820299 enrolled · 2012
Δ -0.40-10.2 to 9.30

This paper's own estimate is on a different scale from the rest of the cell, so it is not drawn here.

4 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

5 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Review
6 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

7 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Olalekan A UthmanWarwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8567-3081
Lena Al-KhudairyWarwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0638-583X
Chidozie NdukaWarwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7031-5444
Rachel CourtWarwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4567-2586
Jodie EnderbyWarwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1446-7512
Seun AnjorinWarwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0187-6410
Hema MistryWarwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5023-1160
G J Melendez-TorresPeninsula Technology Assessment Group (PenTAG), College of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9823-4790
Sian Taylor-PhillipsWarwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1841-4346
Aileen ClarkeWarwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8299-3146

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

8 · The paper itself

Abstract

The marked sentences are the ones the graph read a number from.

Background: Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. This series of systematic reviews and meta-analyses synthesised evidence on the effectiveness, comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions for primary cardiovascular disease prevention. Methods: Five systematic reviews and meta-analyses were conducted using rigorous methods, including comprehensive searches, duplicate screening, risk-of-bias assessments and adherence to reporting guidelines. An umbrella review summarised evidence from 95 systematic reviews. A machine learning study developed a parallel Convolutional Neural Network algorithm with 96.4% recall and 99.1% precision for study screening. A network meta-analysis compared preventive strategies across 139 trials (1,053,772 participants). Simulation modelling projected the population impact of policy interventions, and a cost-effectiveness review appraised eight United Kingdom-based economic evaluations. Results: The umbrella review found that antiplatelets reduced major cardiovascular disease events in 8/17 meta-analyses (relative risks 0.85-0.97), while statins reduced cardiovascular disease mortality (relative risks 0.71-0.89), all-cause mortality (relative risks 0.66-0.93) and major cardiovascular disease events (relative risks 0.59-0.90). sodium-glucose transport protein 2 inhibitors reduced major cardiovascular disease events by 8% (relative risk 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.95) and all-cause mortality by 6% (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.98). Non-pharmacological interventions showed limited evidence, though vitamin D (relative risks 0.93-0.94) and dietary changes (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.97) had some benefits. The network meta-analysis found that antihypertensives (relative risk 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.90), intensive blood pressure control (relative risk 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.96), statins (relative risk 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.91) and multifactorial lifestyle interventions (relative risk 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.92) significantly reduced composite cardiovascular disease events and mortality. Blood pressure lowering also reduced all-cause mortality (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.94). Simulation modelling projected substantial population-level health gains. National salt reduction programmes could prevent 1900-48,000 cardiovascular disease deaths annually, while tobacco control initiatives could avert 15,500 deaths yearly. In the United Kingdom, salt reduction could prevent 4450 deaths annually, and transfat elimination could prevent 1700-3500 deaths yearly. Cost-effectiveness analyses found most interventions had incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. However, intensive diabetes treatment and enhanced motivational interviewing exceeded £55,000/quality-adjusted life-year, indicating low value for money. Limitations: Limitations included residual confounding, heterogeneity in simulation models and a lack of head-to-head trials for some interventions. More research is needed on non-pharmacological interventions, policy implementation and health economic analyses. Conclusions: This series supports antihypertensives, statins and multifactorial lifestyle interventions as core strategies for primary cardiovascular disease prevention. Policy interventions show potential for large-scale impact, and most approaches are cost-effective. Future research should prioritise head-to-head trials, implementation studies and health economic analyses to optimise prevention efforts. Funding: This synopsis presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 17/148/05.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesPrimary PreventionCost-Benefit AnalysisHumansHydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase InhibitorsMeta-Analysis as TopicPlatelet Aggregation InhibitorsSystematic Reviews as TopicTechnology Assessment, BiomedicalUnited KingdomHydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase InhibitorsPlatelet Aggregation InhibitorsCARDIOVASCULAR DISEASECOST-EFFECTIVENESSMETA-ANALYSISNETWORK META-ANALYSISPRIMARY PREVENTIONSYSTEMATIC REVIEW

Identifiers

PMID40824117
PMCPMC12434577

What OpenQuestion holds

Texttitle and abstract
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.