Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40823552›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in medicine2025

Development of a nomogram for predicting the intraperitoneal rupture of necrotic collection in patients with necrotizing pancreatitis.

Gang Li, Yang Liu, Zirui Liu, Minchun Bu, Kaiming Li, Jie Yang, Jingzhu Zhang, Jing Zhou, Bo Ye, Lin Gao and 2 more

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In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Gang Li *Department of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Yang Liu *Department of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Zirui Liu *Department of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Minchun BuDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Kaiming LiDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Jie YangDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Jingzhu ZhangDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Jing ZhouDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Bo YeDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Lin GaoDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Zhihui TongDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Weiqin LiDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Center of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (CSAP), Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objectives: Intraperitoneal rupture of necrotic collection (IRNC) is an extremely rare and severe complication in patients with necrotizing pancreatitis. This study aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of intraperitoneal rupture of necrotic collection and develop a distinct model for predicting the risk of IRNC. Methods: This is a single-center, retrospective study. All consecutive patients with a primary diagnosis of necrotizing pancreatitis between January 2017 and December 2018 were screened. A nomogram was developed by multivariable logistic regression, and predictive discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability were tested. Results: Of the 181 patients included, 20 (11%) patients developed intraperitoneal rupture of necrotic collections spontaneously during hospitalization (IRNC group). Compared with the non-IRNC group, patients in the IRNC group received more emergency open necrosectomy, and had a higher incidence of major complications and longer hospital stays. Variables associated with intraperitoneal rupture of necrotic collections included body temperature, total protein, white blood cell, and fibrinogen degradation products. A clinical prediction nomogram was developed for predicting rupture, and it exhibited better discrimination than the currently available parameters, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.897 (95%CI: 0.835-0.958). Conclusion: We have developed a nomogram to identify patients who are at risk of IRNC. Further studies are needed to externally validate and include more data to enhance the applicability and generalizability of the nomogram.

Indexed as

clinical characteristicsintraperitoneal rupturenecrotizing pancreatitisnomogrampredictive model

Identifiers

PMID40823552
PMCPMC12354534

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