Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40823282›Full record

ArticleOne earth (Cambridge, Mass.)2025

Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge.

Biqing Zhu, Chunjing Qiu, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Robin D Lamboll, Ashley Ballantyne, Jinfeng Chang, Nitin Chaudhary, Angela V Gallego-Sala, Bertrand Guenet and 19 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in One earth (Cambridge, Mass.), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

29 authors.

Biqing ZhuInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Chunjing QiuLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Thomas GasserInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Philippe CiaisLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Robin D LambollCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Ashley BallantyneLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Jinfeng ChangCollege of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Nitin ChaudharyDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden.
Angela V Gallego-SalaGeography Department, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK.
Bertrand GuenetLG-ENS (Laboratoire de Géologie) CNRS UMR 8538 - Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL University - IPSL, Paris, France.
Joseph HoldenSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
Fortunat JoosClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
Thomas KleinenMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany.
Min Jung KwonLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Irina MelnikovaLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Jurek MüllerClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
Susan PageSchool of Geography, Geology and the Environment, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Elodie SalmonLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Carl-Friedrich SchleussnerInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Guy SchurgersDepartment of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Gaurav P ShrivastavInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Narasinha J ShurpaliNatural Resources Institute Finland, Production Systems, Halolantie 31 A, 71750 Maaninka, Finland.
Katsumasa TanakaLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
David WårlindDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden.
Sebastian WestermannDepartment of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0371 Oslo, Norway.
Yi XiLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Wenxin ZhangDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden.
Yuan ZhangState Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Dan ZhuSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature goals requires limiting future carbon emissions, yet current policies make temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target likely. The potential climate feedback from destabilizing peatlands, storing large amounts of carbon, remains poorly quantified. Using the reduced-complexity Earth System Model OSCAR with an integrated peat carbon module, we found that across various overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed 1.5°C-2.5°C, northern peatlands exhibit net positive feedback, amplifying the overshoot challenge. Warming increases peatlands' net carbon uptake, but this is largely offset by higher methane emissions. We estimated that for each 1°C increase in peak warming, the positive feedback from peatlands decreases the remaining carbon budget by 37 GtCO

Indexed as

carbonclimate changegreenhouse gasesland surface modelnorthern peatlandsovershootreduced-complexity earth system modeltemperature feedback

Identifiers

PMID40823282
PMCPMC12356699

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.