ArticleFrontiers in plant science2025
From rings to regions: modeling and mapping climate-driven timber production zones for
Article in Frontiers in plant science, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
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6 authors.
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Abstract
Introduction: Methods: In this study, we constructed species distribution models using Random Forest (RF) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), based on verified field occurrence records and climatic data. Habitat suitability was projected under current and future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We further analyzed the relationships between climate suitability and growth traits across 27 natural populations. Results: Both models demonstrated high predictive performance (RF AUC = 0.970, MaxEnt AUC = 0.942), identifying temperature variability and water availability as key limiting factors. Climate suitability was significantly correlated with 20-year diameter growth (R² = 0.625) and wood basic density (R² = 0.463). A stronger correlation was observed between annual growth and climate suitability of the preceding year (R² = 0.695), suggesting a lag effect. Discussion: By integrating trait-climate relationships, we projected spatial shifts in fast-growing, high-quality timber zones. Future projections suggest a 49.2-60.0% decline in highly suitable habitats and timber forests by the 2050s, with marginal zones shifting northward and toward higher latitudes. This trait-integrated modeling framework offers a scientific basis for climate-resilient conservation and afforestation planning.
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