Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40821002›Full record

ArticleClimate services2025

A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil.

Timothy J Krupnik, José Mauricio Cunha Fernandes, Felipe Vargas, Emerson Medeiros Del Ponte, Khaled Hossain, Mustafa Kamal, Mutasim Billah, Md Harun-Or-Rashid, Sk Ghulam Hussain, Pawan Kumar Singh and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Climate services, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Timothy J KrupnikInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
José Mauricio Cunha FernandesEmpresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa), Trigo, Brazil.
Felipe VargasSensorOn, Estrada do Trigo, Brazil.
Emerson Medeiros Del PonteDepartamento de Fitopatologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Brazil.
Khaled HossainInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Mustafa KamalInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Mutasim BillahInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Md Harun-Or-RashidInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Sk Ghulam HussainInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Pawan Kumar SinghCIMMYT, El Batan, Mexico.
Krishna Kanta RoyBangladesh Wheat and Maize Research Institute (BWMRI), Dinajpur, Bangladesh.
Carlos Augusto PizolottoCooperativa Central Gaúcha Ltda. (CCGL), Cruz Alta, Brazil.
Md Shah Kamal KhanDepartment of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Willingthon PavanDepartment of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida (UF), Gainesville, FL, USA.
Golam FaruqBangladesh Wheat and Maize Research Institute (BWMRI), Dinajpur, Bangladesh.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We describe the user-centered design (UCD) of a numerical weather-forecast-driven early warning system (EWS) as a climate service for managing wheat blast, a fungal disease capable of causing complete crop yield losses that is strongly dependent on weather conditions. Our mixed-methods process was guided by stakeholder input on the design, testing, and refinement of the EWS from agricultural extension organizations, meteorological departments, and farmers' groups in Bangladesh and Brazil, where concerns about blast disease risks are high. The UCD process led to a wheat blast disease prediction model, server systems, and user-facing enhancements, including an open-source dashboard (https://beattheblastews.net/) that displays historical, real-time, and forecasted weather data, along with geographically explicit disease predictions, to support informed decision-making on wheat blast management. We describe the back- and front-end design of the dashboard, which supports disease risk forecasting, hindcasting, and the dissemination of early warning advisories co-designed with user organizations. We validated the EWS through comparisons with field observations in both countries. Model results generally agreed with disease incidence records, and model hindcasting confirmed alignment with disease outbreak patterns in Bangladesh and Brazil. Collaboration between agricultural research, meteorological and extension organizations in developing and supplying weather forecasts, disease management advisories, and early warning systems-along with presenting hindcast validation results to stakeholders-led to the formal endorsement of the EWS in both countries. This process also enabled the registration and training of over 14,500 extension officers, lead farmers, and farmers' cooperative members who now receive advisories via email, SMS, agro-meteorological bulletins, smartphone applications, WhatsApp and social media messages. These tools support them in interpreting and sharing wheat blast early warnings with farmers to improve disease preparadness and management actions in both countries.

Indexed as

Decision support toolEarly warning systemHuman centered designIntegrated pest managementMagnaporthe oryzae pathotype TriticumSoftware design

Identifiers

PMID40821002
PMCPMC12350828

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.