Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40803836›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2025

ADHD drug treatment and risk of suicidal behaviours, substance misuse, accidental injuries, transport accidents, and criminality: emulation of target trials.

Le Zhang, Nanbo Zhu, Arvid Sjölander, Mikail Nourredine, Lin Li, Miguel Garcia-Argibay, Ralf Kuja-Halkola, Isabell Brikell, Paul Lichtenstein, Brian M D'Onofrio and 3 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 28 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  15. Child and adolescent psychiatry: challenges, solutions, opportunities, and future directions.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Le ZhangDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Nanbo ZhuDivision of Clinical Geriatrics, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Arvid SjölanderDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Mikail NourredineCentre for Innovation in Mental Health, School of Psychology, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, and Clinical and Experimental Sciences (CNS and Psychiatry), Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Lin LiDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Miguel Garcia-ArgibayDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ralf Kuja-HalkolaDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Isabell BrikellDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Paul LichtensteinDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Brian M D'OnofrioDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Henrik LarssonDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Samuele CorteseCentre for Innovation in Mental Health, School of Psychology, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, and Clinical and Experimental Sciences (CNS and Psychiatry), Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Zheng ChangDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-8087-1417

Funding

National Institute for Health and Care Research NIHR NIHR-303122
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo examine the effects of drug treatment for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) on suicidal behaviours, substance misuse, accidental injuries, transport accidents, and criminality.

designEmulation of target trials.

settingLinkage of national registers in Sweden, 2007-20.

participantsPeople aged 6-64 years with a new diagnosis of ADHD, who either started or did not start drug treatment for ADHD within three months of diagnosis.

main outcome measuresFirst and recurrent events of five outcomes over two years after ADHD diagnosis: suicidal behaviours, substance misuse, accidental injuries, transport accidents, and criminality.

resultsOf 148 581 individuals with ADHD (median age 17.4 years; 41.3% female), 84 282 (56.7%) started drug treatment for ADHD, with methylphenidate being the most commonly prescribed at initiation (74 515; 88.4%). Drug treatment for ADHD was associated with reduced rates of the first occurrence of suicidal behaviours (weighted incidence rates 14.5 per 1000 person years in the initiation group versus 16.9 in the non-initiation group; adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.88), substance misuse (58.7

conclusionsDrug treatment for ADHD was associated with beneficial effects in reducing the risks of suicidal behaviours, substance misuse, transport accidents, and criminality but not accidental injuries when considering first event rate. The risk reductions were more pronounced for recurrent events, with reduced rates for all five outcomes. This target trial emulation study using national register data provides evidence that is representative of patients in routine clinical settings.

Indexed as

Accidental InjuriesAccidents, TrafficAttention Deficit Disorder with HyperactivityCentral Nervous System StimulantsSubstance-Related DisordersAdolescentAdultChildCrimeFemaleHumansMaleMethylphenidateMiddle AgedRegistriesSuicideCentral Nervous System StimulantsMethylphenidate

Identifiers

PMID40803836
PMCPMC12344785

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.