Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40802771›Full record

ArticleScience advances2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction.

Zijie Guo, Pumeng Lyu, Fenghua Ling, Lei Bai, Jing-Jia Luo, Niklas Boers, Toshio Yamagata, Takeshi Izumo, Sophie Cravatte, Antonietta Capotondi and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Zijie GuoSchool of Computer Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.ORCID 0009-0008-0371-2747
Pumeng LyuShanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai, China.
Fenghua LingShanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai, China.ORCID 0009-0007-1373-1151
Lei BaiShanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai, China.ORCID 0000-0003-3378-7201
Jing-Jia LuoInstitute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR)/CPRM/CIC-FEMD/KLME/ILCEC, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.ORCID 0000-0003-2181-0638
Niklas BoersEarth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-1239-9034
Toshio YamagataApplication Laboratory, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan.ORCID 0000-0003-1267-2149
Takeshi IzumoInstitut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR241 SECOPOL (UPF/IRD/IFREMER/ILM) Laboratory, Université de la Polynésie Francaise (UPF), Tahiti, French Polynesia.ORCID 0000-0001-9617-2234
Sophie CravatteLEGOS (IRD/UT3/CNES/CNRS), Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France.ORCID 0000-0002-2439-8952
Antonietta CapotondiCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3594-5472
Wanli OuyangShanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai, China.ORCID 0000-0002-9163-2761

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Identifiers

PMID40802771
PMCPMC12346350

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.