Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40796798›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south.

Emilie E Ellis, Laura H Antão, Andréa Davrinche, Jussi Mäkinen, Mark Rees, Irene Conenna, Ida-Maria Huikkonen, Reima Leinonen, Juha Pöyry, Anna Suuronen and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Emilie E EllisResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland. emilie.ellis@helsinki.fi.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7862-3353
Laura H AntãoResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6612-9366
Andréa DavrincheResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0339-2997
Jussi MäkinenResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Mark ReesSchool of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8513-9906
Irene ConennaResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Ida-Maria HuikkonenFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland.
Reima LeinonenKainuu Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment, Kajaani, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6074-4659
Juha PöyryFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5548-1046
Anna SuuronenFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland.
Anna-Liisa LaineResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0703-5850
Marjo SaastamoinenResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7009-2527
Jarno VanhataloResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6831-0211
Tomas RoslinResearch Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2957-4791

Funding

Vetenskapsrådet (Swedish Research Council) 2023-05118
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

As the climate warms, species are shifting their ranges to match their climatic niches, leading to the warming of ecological communities (thermophilisation). We currently have little understanding of the population-level processes driving this community-level warming, particularly at rapidly warming high latitudes. Using 30 years of high-resolution moth monitoring data across a 1200 km latitudinal gradient in Finland, we find that higher latitude communities are experiencing more rapid thermophilisation. We attribute this spatial variation to colonisation-extinction dynamics, both for the full community and for thermal affinity groups. Our findings reveal that latitudinal variation in the pathways underpinning thermophilisation is the net outcome of opposite forces: in the north, community warming is driven by the extinction of cold-affiliated species, while in the south it is driven by high colonisation rates of warm-affiliated species. Thus, we show how species' thermal affinities influence community reorganisation and highlight the elevated extinction risk among cold-affiliated species.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeExtinction, BiologicalMothsAnimalsEcosystemFinlandGlobal WarmingPopulation DynamicsTemperature

Identifiers

PMID40796798
PMCPMC12344031

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.