ArticleNature medicine2025
Geographical shifting of cholera burden in Africa and its implications for disease control.
Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- A case for using spatial evidence in waterborne disease control.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026Article
- Climate change and infectious diseases.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- Clinical presentation and outcome of cholera in a regional hospital in Khartoum State, Sudan.Sudanese journal of paediatrics · 2026Article
- Role of communities in preparedness, response and resilience to cholera epidemics: a systematic review protocol.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Changes in cholera burden across Africa.Nature reviews. Gastroenterology & hepatology · 2025Article
- Care seeking for diarrheal illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
26 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Cholera outbreaks cause substantial morbidity and mortality in Africa, yet changes in the geographic distribution of cholera burden over time remain uncharacterized. We used surveillance data and spatial statistical models to estimate the mean annual incidence of reported suspected cholera for 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 on a 20-km grid across Africa. Across 43 countries, mean annual incidence rates remained at 11 cases per 100,000 population, with 125,701 cases estimated annually (95% credible interval (CrI): 124,737-126,717) from 2016 to 2020. Cholera incidence shifted from western to eastern Africa. There were 296 million people (95% CrI: 282-312 million) in high-incidence second-level administrative (ADM2) units (≥10 cases per 100,000 per year) in 2020, 135 million of whom experienced low incidence (<1 per 100,000) in 2011-2015. ADM2 units with high incidence in central and eastern Africa from 2011 to 2020 were more likely to report cholera in 2022-2023. In hypothetical scenarios of preventive disease control planning, targeting the 100 million highest-burden populations had potential to reach up to 63% of 2016-2020 mean annual cases but only 37% when targeting by past incidence. This retrospective analysis highlights spatiotemporal instability in cholera burden and can be used as a benchmark for tracking future progress in disease control.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.