Observational studyThe Lancet. Child & adolescent health2025
Risk stratification of childhood infection using host markers of immune and endothelial activation in Asia (Spot Sepsis): a multi-country, prospective, cohort study.
Observational study in The Lancet. Child & adolescent health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04285021 (Prediction of Disease Severity in Young Children Presenting With Acute Febrile Illness in Resource-limited Settings), which is not on this map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Prediction of Disease Severity in Young Children Presenting With Acute Febrile Illness in Resource-limited Settings
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Rethinking triage for febrile children in low-resource settings.Nature medicine · 2026Article
- Predicting referral need for febrile children in low-resource community settings in South and Southeast Asia.Nature medicine · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
26 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPrognostic tools for febrile illnesses are urgently required in resource-constrained community contexts. Circulating immune and endothelial activation markers stratify risk in common childhood infections. We aimed to assess their use in children with febrile illness presenting from rural communities across Asia.
methodsSpot Sepsis was a prospective cohort study across seven hospitals in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, and Viet Nam that serve as a first point of contact with the formal health-care system for rural populations. Children were eligible if aged 1-59 months and presenting with a community-acquired acute febrile illness that had lasted no more than 14 days. Clinical parameters were recorded and biomarker concentrations measured at presentation. The primary outcome measure was severe febrile illness (death or receipt of organ support) within 2 days of enrolment. Weighted area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were used to compare prognostic accuracy of endothelial activation markers (ANG-1, ANG-2, and soluble FLT-1), immune activation markers (CHI3L1, CRP, IP-10, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, PCT, soluble TNF-R1, soluble TREM1 [sTREM1], and soluble uPAR), WHO danger signs, the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA) score, and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score. Prognostic accuracy of combining WHO danger signs and the best performing biomarker was analysed in a weighted logistic regression model. Weighted measures of classification were used to compare prognostic accuracies of WHO danger signs and the best performing biomarker and to determine the number of children needed to test (NNT) to identify one additional child who would progress to severe febrile illness. The study was prospectively registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04285021.
findings3423 participants were recruited between March 5, 2020, and Nov 4, 2022, 18 (0·5%) of whom were lost to follow-up. 133 (3·9%) of 3405 participants developed severe febrile illness (22 deaths, 111 received organ support; weighted prevalence 0·34% [95% CI 0·28-0·41]). sTREM1 showed the highest prognostic accuracy to identify patients who would progress to severe febrile illness (AUC 0·86 [95% CI 0·82-0·90]), outperforming WHO danger signs (0·75 [0·71-0·80]; p<0·0001), LqSOFA (0·74 [0·69-0·78]; p<0·0001), and SIRS (0·63 [0·58-0·68]; p<0·0001). Combining WHO danger signs with sTREM1 (0·88 [95% CI 0·85-0·91]) did not improve accuracy in identifying progression to severe febrile illness over sTREM1 alone (p=0·24). Sensitivity for identifying progression to severe febrile illness was greater for sTREM1 (0·80 [95% CI 0·73-0·85]) than for WHO danger signs (0·72 [0·66-0·79]; NNT=3000), whereas specificities were comparable (0·81 [0·78-0·83] for sTREM1 vs 0·79 [0·76-0·82] for WHO danger signs). Discrimination of immune and endothelial activation markers was best for children who progressed to meet the outcome more than 48 h after enrolment (sTREM1: AUC 0·94 [95% CI 0·89-0·98]).
interpretationsTREM1 showed the best prognostic accuracy to discriminate children who would progress to severe febrile illness. In resource-constrained community settings, an sTREM1-based triage strategy might enhance early recognition of risk of poor outcomes in children presenting with febrile illness.
fundingMédecins Sans Frontières, Spain, and Wellcome. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic and French translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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