Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40768574›Full record

ArticleScience advances2025

Anthropogenic warming drives earlier wildfire season onset in California.

Gavin D Madakumbura, Max A Moritz, Karen A McKinnon, A Park Williams, Stefan Rahimi, Benjamin Bass, Jesse Norris, Rong Fu, Alex Hall

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Gavin D MadakumburaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0092-4153
Max A MoritzBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California-Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8995-8893
Karen A McKinnonDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3314-8442
A Park WilliamsDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8176-8166
Stefan RahimiDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3188-4462
Benjamin BassDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Jesse NorrisDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Rong FuDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4065-248X
Alex HallDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4973-8500

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Annual wildfire area in California has rapidly grown in recent decades, with increasingly negative impacts on people. The fire season is also lengthening, with an earlier onset. This trend has been hypothesized to be driven by anthropogenic warming, but it has yet to be quantitatively attributed to climate drivers. Using a comprehensive fire occurrence dataset, we analyze fire season onset and climate controls on its variability and change during 1992-2020 in 13 California ecoregions. Northern California ecoregions show stronger trends toward earlier onset compared to more arid southern California ecoregions. Onset has trended earlier for all but one ecoregion. Interannual variability of onset is dominated by climate variability and its influence on fuel moisture. Trend attribution inferred from onset-climate relationships suggests that anthropogenic warming advanced fire season onset by 6 to 46 days during 1992-2020 in 11 of 13 ecoregions. Continued warming is expected to further promote earlier fire season onsets.

Identifiers

PMID40768574
PMCPMC12327471

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.