Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40765894›Full record

ArticleNature. Mental health2025

Predicting suicide attempts among US Army soldiers using information available at the time of periodic health assessments.

James A Naifeh, Emily R Edwards, Kate H Bentley, Sarah M Gildea, Chris J Kennedy, Andrew J King, Evan M Kleiman, Alex Luedtke, Thomas H Nassif, Matthew K Nock and 6 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature. Mental health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

James A NaifehDepartment of Psychiatry, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Emily R EdwardsVeterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 2, Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center, Department of Veterans Affairs, Bronx, NY, USA.
Kate H BentleyDepartment of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital/Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Sarah M GildeaDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Chris J KennedyDepartment of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital/Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Andrew J KingDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Evan M KleimanDepartment of Psychology, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
Alex LuedtkeDepartment of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Thomas H NassifDepartment of Psychiatry, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Matthew K NockDepartment of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Nancy A SampsonDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Nur Hani ZainalDepartment of Psychology, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Murray B SteinVA San Diego Healthcare System, San Diego, CA, USA.
Vincent F CapaldiDepartment of Psychiatry, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Robert J UrsanoDepartment of Psychiatry, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Ronald C KesslerDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.

Funding

Modifiable Risk and Protective Factors for Suicidal Behaviors in the US ArmyU01MH087981 · NIMH · HENRY M. JACKSON FDN FOR THE ADV MIL/MED · PI STEIN, MURRAY B., URSANO, ROBERT J. · 2009 to 2013
$65.0M
NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH087981
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The value of population screening for suicide risk remains unclear. The U.S. Army's annual medical examination, the Periodic Health Assessment (PHA), screens for suicidality and other mental and physical health problems. This 2014-2019 cohort study used PHA and Army administrative data (n=1,042,796 PHAs from 452,473 soldiers) to develop a model to predict 6-month nonfatal and fatal suicide attempts (SAs). The model was designed to establish eligibility for a planned high-risk SA prevention intervention. The PHA suicide risk screening questions had limited value, as 95% of SAs occurred among soldiers who denied suicidality. However, a simple lasso penalized regression model that included a wide range of administrative predictors had good test sample discrimination (0.794 [SE=0.009] area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and calibration (0.0001 integrated calibration index). The 25% of soldiers at highest predicted risk accounted for 69.5% of 6-month SAs, supporting use of the model to target preventive interventions.

Identifiers

PMID40765894
PMCPMC12323734

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.