Dynamic gating-enhanced deep learning model with multi-source remote sensing synergy for optimizing wheat yield estimation.

Introduction: Accurate wheat yield estimation is crucial for efficient crop management. This study introduces the Spatio-Temporal Fusion Mixture of Experts (STF-MoE) model, an innovative deep learning framework built upon an LSTM-Transformer architecture. Methods: The STF-MoE model incorporates a heterogeneous Mixture of Experts (MoE) mechanism with an adaptive gating network. This design dynamically processes fused multi-source remote sensing features (e.g., near-infrared vegetation reflectance, NIRv; fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorption, Fpar) and environmental variables (e.g., relative humidity, digital elevation model) across multiple expert networks. The model was applied to estimate wheat yield in six major Chinese provinces. Results: The STF-MoE model demonstrated exceptional accuracy in the most recent estimation year (R² = 0.827, RMSE = 547.7 kg/ha) and exhibited robust performance across historical years and extreme climatic events, outperforming baseline models. Relative humidity and digital elevation model were identified as the most critical yield-influencing factors. Furthermore, the model accurately estimated yield 1-2 months before harvest by identifying key phenological stages (March to June). Discussion: STF-MoE effectively handles multi-source spatiotemporal complexity via its dynamic gating and expert specialization. While underestimation persists in extreme-yield regions, the model provides a scalable solution for pre-harvest yield estimation. Future work will optimize computational efficiency and integrate higher-resolution data.